Political junkies often get so focused on the day-to-day tactics of campaigning and spinning that they forget about the fundamentals. In the case of President Obama, it’s the fundamentals that explain why his job approval ratings have fallen and why congressional Democrats are facing a hostile political environment.

One fundamental is the economy. With unemployment at 10.2%, it’s bound to be a tough time for the party in power. But another fundamental that’s adding to the administration’s woes is the way the president and his team are dealing with the economic challenges.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters nationwide now expect their own taxes to go up during the Obama years. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just nine percent (9%) expect their own taxes to go down.

Those figures reflect a dramatic turnaround from earlier in the year. In January, just 29% expected their taxes to go up while 21% expected them to go down. That trend presents quite a challenge for a president who clinched the White House by promising to cut taxes for 95% of Americans.

Adding to the challenge is that 66% now expect government spending to go up during the Obama years.

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While some advisors to the president think more government intervention is needed in the economy, voters overwhelmingly reject that approach and believe that higher taxes and more government spending are harmful to the economy. If fact, 59% of voters believe tax hikes hurt the economy while just 19% believe they can help. Eleven percent (11%) say they have no impact, and 11% are not sure.

Democrats are fairly evenly divided, but Republicans and unaffiliated voters overwhelmingly believe that tax hikes are bad news for the economy.

By a 59% to 24% margin, voters also believe that an increase in government spending will hurt the economy. Looking back at the economic stimulus package passed earlier this year, 36% believe that it helped the economy while 34% believe it hurt. That package was a mix of tax cuts (which most voters see as good for the economy) and spending hikes (which most voters see as bad). During the debate over the stimulus package, voters consistently wanted it to include more tax cuts.

Most voters now believe that canceling the rest of the stimulus spending would help job creation. By a three-to-one margin, they believe tax cuts would create more jobs than additional spending.

Again, this has little to do with the specifics of the stimulus package and a lot to do with fundamentals. Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters believe that cuts in government spending are good for the economy while just 23% believe they hurt. Those numbers have remained relatively constant for over a decade.

On this question, most Republicans and unaffiliated voters agree. So do a plurality of Democrats (37%). Just 29% of Democrats believe that cutting government spending is bad for the economy.

Some Democrats believe that calling for taxes on the rich is the way out of the problem, and it is certainly true that having the wealthy cover the costs is appealing to many on specific issues.

However, 48% of voters now say they’d prefer a candidate who opposed all tax hikes over one who promised to raise taxes only on the rich. Thirty-eight percent (38%) would prefer a candidate who promised to tax the rich more. During Election 2008, a plurality consistently held the opposite view.

Regardless of specifics and campaign promises, the fact that a growing number of Americans believe their taxes will go up during the Obama years presents a political challenge for the administration.

That challenge was clearly anticipated a year ago in a Wall Street Journal column by Scott Rasmussen when he wrote, “Mr. Obama won the White House promising tax cuts, but he will be governing with a Democratic Congress bursting with desire for a more activist government. As he faces this challenge, he might remember the fate of another man who made taxes the central part of his campaign: the first President Bush, whose most memorable campaign line -- "Read my lips, no new taxes" -- was as central to his victory as Mr. Obama's promise to cut taxes for 95% of Americans. George H.W. Bush famously reneged on that promise. Voters rejected his bid for a second term. Mr. Obama ran like Reagan. Will he be able to govern that way, too?”

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