Judge Sonia Sotomayor, President Obama’s first choice for the U.S. Supreme Court, is well ahead of the game at this early stage of the confirmation process when compared to President George W. Bush’s high court nominees.

But the partisan ranks also are more clearly drawn this time. Republican opposition to Sotomayor in the first week of her nomination is higher already than Democratic opposition to Bush’s nominees at the end of the confirmation process by 10 or more points.

In a survey last week just after the president announced Sotomayor’s nomination, 87% of U.S. voters said they expected her to be confirmed by the Senate. Forty-five percent (45%) favored her confirmation. (see crosstabs)

By comparison, in July 2005, 71% of Americans felt Bush’s first nominee, John G. Roberts, Jr., would be confirmed, and 43% supported that confirmation. This is the highest level of initial support enjoyed by any of the previous president’s choices for the Supreme Court.

Those numbers changed very little when Bush withdrew Roberts’ nomination following the sudden death of Chief Justice William Rehnquist and nominated him instead in September of that year to head the high court. In a survey at that point, 72% said Roberts would be confirmed as chief justice, while 39% supported him for the post. Roberts was confirmed later that month as chief justice of the Supreme Court.

Sixty-five percent (65%) said Bush’s next nominee, White House Chief Counsel Harriet Miers, would be confirmed, but just 32% were in favor of her elevation to the high court in an early October 2005 survey.

Even as Miers stumbled through the confirmation process, a survey a week later found that 64% thought she would still be confirmed. But at this point more voters opposed her nomination (34%) than favored it (30%). A week later, Miers withdrew her name from consideration.

Bush’s follow-up choice was Judge Samuel Alito. Sixty-five percent (65%) said Alito would be confirmed by the Senate in a survey at the beginning of November 2005, just after Bush announced his nomination. At that time, 30% supported his selection.

By January 2006, just before the Senate confirmed his nomination to the Supreme Court, 68% expected Alito to win Senate approval, and 39% supported him.

New Rasmussen Reports polling, taken the night before and the night after Sotomayor’s first, highly-publicized visit to meet with key senators, still shows very high belief that she will be confirmed. However, there’s been a slight drop in the number who say she should be confirmed. (see crosstabs)

Historically, for all recent nominees except Alito, that’s been the trend. The longer a nominee is in the confirmation process and the more that is known about them, the lower their level of public support. That’s one reason why Democrats are pushing for an early confirmation hearing for Sotomayor while Republicans are more willing to take their time.

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