Sonia Sotomayor, the federal appeals court judge who is President Obama’s first nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court, has the numbers with her so far. Americans overwhelmingly expect the Senate to confirm her as her confirmation hearings begin.

Rasmussen Reports has been regularly tracking public opinion of Sotomayor since the president nominated her in May to replace retiring Justice David Souter. The latest survey began Sunday night and will continue tonight for public release Tuesday morning.

Initially, Sotomayor tracked more favorably than any of President George W. Bush’s Supreme Court nominees, and her trajectory since then has followed the historically predictable path – generally high expectations that she will be confirmed by the Senate but rising opposition, largely partisan-driven, as more is known about her and her legal record.

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In our first survey after the president’s announcement, 45% of voters favored confirmation of Sotomayor, who, if approved by the Senate, will be the first Hispanic member of the high court. Twenty-nine percent (29%) opposed her confirmation, However, a month later, in a survey conducted on the two nights following the Supreme Court’s reversal of her best-known appellate court decision, only 37% said Sotomayor should be confirmed while 39% disagreed.

Yet even after the Supreme Court’s reversal of her ruling in a reverse discrimination case filed by New Haven firefighters, 84% of U.S. voters said they expected her to win confirmation. Fifty-eight percent (58%) characterized her confirmation as Very Likely. These numbers have remained largely unchanged since polling on her nomination first began.

However, other than the day the president announced her nomination, Sotomayor has only been seen publicly going in and out of senators’ offices for private getting-to-know-you meetings. Voters have come to know her through news reports of her “paper trail” of rulings, speeches and the like. The hearings will be the first time America will hear the high court nominee speak for herself.

Republicans, in particular, can be expected to seek an explanation from Sotomayor for both the New Haven decision and for these remarks in a 2001 speech: “Whether born from experience or inherent physiological or cultural differences … our gender and national origins may and will make a difference in our judging. I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the richness of her experiences would more often than not reach a better conclusion than a white male who hasn't lived that life.” Critics have complained that this indicates a judicial bias on her part rather than a strict interpretation of the law, and the White House has said that Sotomayor “misspoke.”

Her response to this line of questioning will be important because 66% of voters nationwide believe that well-qualified male and female judges would reach the same conclusion most of the time, although 17% disagree. By a virtually identical margin, 67% to 16%, voters believe the same is true of well-qualified white and Hispanic judges.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters also say the U.S. legal system should apply the law equally to all Americans rather than using the law to help those who have less power and influence.

The majority of voters have consistently said that the Supreme Court should base its decisions on what is written in the Constitution rather than being guided by fairness and justice. But the majority also believes that Supreme Court justices have their own political agenda (see crosstabs and trends.)

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters believe the most important consideration in the selection of a Supreme Court justice is the nominee’s legal background and competence. For 27% of voters, making sure the Supreme Court represents the diversity of America is most important, and nearly as many (23%) think the nominee’s views on important issues should be the priority.

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