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Partisan Trends
Number of Republicans Grows in August, Democrats Still Have Advantage
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
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During August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%. That gives the Democrats a net advantage of 5.7 percentage points, down two points from a month ago and down significantly from the double digit advantage they enjoyed in April and May. However, the Democrats still enjoy a much bigger advantage today than they did when votes were cast in Election 2004 and an advantage almost identical to their edge in January. In fact, other than the past six months, the current 5.7 percentage point advantage is one of the biggest on record (see history from January 2004 to present). These new results have very little to do with recent news events such as the Democratic National Convention or selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be John McCain’s running mate. Interviews are conducted throughout the month and the vast majority were completed before these events dominated the news cycle. Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. Among men, 35% are Republicans while 34% are Democrats. Among women, 44% are Democrats, and just 32% claim the GOP as their party. For both men and women, the number of Republicans is up two points while the number of Democrats remains stable. Forty-two percent (42%) of government employees are Democrats while 33% are Republicans. Among entrepreneurs, 37% are Republican, 34% Democrat. Those who work for someone else in the private sector lean Democratic by a 37% to 35% margin. The biggest gains for the GOP came among those who work for someone else in the private sector. Last month, just 31% of such employees were Republicans. Republicans have a four-percentage point advantage among Investors while Democrats enjoy an 18-point edge among non-Investors. In January and February, while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were in the early stages of the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, the number of Americans who considered themselves to be Democrats surged to record highs. In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points. In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November. These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error for the sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show Obama with a modest advantage heading into the fall campaign. The same is true when you look at the Electoral College. Democrats continue to have a significant advantage on 10 key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports and lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESAdvertisement
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