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Democrats Retain Huge Party ID Advantage
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
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In January and February, while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were in the early stages of the battle for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the number of Americans who considered themselves to be Democrats surged to record highs. The numbers have stabilized since then, leaving the Democratic Party with a significant advantage over Republicans in terms of partisan identification. During the month of June, 41.0% of Americans considered themselves to be Democrats, 31.5% said they were Republicans and 27.5% were not affiliated with either major party. (See Last Month's Results) This marks the fifth straight month that the number of Democrats has been between 41.0% and 41.7%. During that same period, the number of Republicans has also stabilized, ranging only from 31.4% to 32.1% (see history from January 2004 to present). Prior to February of this year, neither party had ever reached the 39% level of support. Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points. In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November. These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error for the sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama with a modest advantage in the race for the White House. The same is true when you look at the Electoral College. Democrats continue to have a significant advantage on ten key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports and lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESWhen the Warmest in History Isn't By Debra J. Saunders What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Electoral College: Obama 260 McCain 160 77% Say Children Should Say Pledge At School Every Day 68% Say Obama Politically Liberal Labels Matter: Progressive Better than Liberal, Reagan-Like Better than Conservative Voters Have Low Opinion of Congressional Democrats Key to the Economy Black, Youth Voters Continue to Show Greater Optimism in Nation’s Future 68% Prefer “Merry Christmas” to “Happy Holidays” Advertisement
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