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New York Senate: Kennedy Leads King by 18 But Vulnerabilities Linger
Thursday, January 08, 2009
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If Caroline Kennedy is appointed to the U.S. Senate, she is favored to win re-election against her likeliest Republican opponent in 2010. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New York voters finds Kennedy would attract 51% of the vote in a match-up with Republican Peter King, a longtime congressman form Long Island. King, who has made his interest in such a race clear, earns 33% of the vote at this time. Nine percent (9%) say they would vote for a third-party candidate, and seven percent (7%) are not sure. Still, there are hints of potential vulnerability for the daughter of former President John F. Kennedy, who is the leading candidate to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate. (Want a free daily e-mail update? Sign up now. If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Just 42% believe she is qualified to serve in the Senate, and only nine percent (9%) believe she would do a better job than Clinton. Thirty-four percent (34%) believe she would not do as well as her predecessor, who has been nominated by President-elect Obama to serve as secretary of State. Additionally, only 21% believe Kennedy would even be considered for the job if she had a different last name. In a survey last month, just 37% of voters nationwide said Kennedy was qualified to be in the U.S. Senate, and only 16% said she would be considered if her last name wasn’t Kennedy. Overall, the strong Democratic leanings of New York give Kennedy a leg up to win the seat -- once held by her Uncle Robert -- in a 2010 election. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of New York voters approve of the way that Obama has performed his role as President-elect. So, even though Kennedy’s support trails that level by 26 points, it’s still enough to currently attract a bare majority of the vote. New York Governor David Paterson says he will name a replacement for Clinton as soon as the Senate formally approves her nomination to the State Department, and Kennedy is the leading candidate for the job. Obviously, if Kennedy is appointed, these survey numbers are likely to change based on how she handles herself as a senator. As a resident of New York City for much of her life, she has been working to sell herself to voters upstate and has generated criticism in some of her early media encounters. Currently, Kennedy is viewed favorably by 63% of New Yorkers and unfavorably by 31%. Most, however, don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other. Twenty-two percent (22%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Kennedy while 16% hold a Very Unfavorable view. King’s numbers are 39% favorable and 27% unfavorable with 23% holding not even a soft opinion of the the congressman. Eleven percent (11%) have a Very Favorable view of him while nine percent (9%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion. Forty-seven percent (47%) of New Yorkers are at least somewhat worried about the United States having a number of unofficial royal families like the Kennedys and Bushes while 51% are not. Kennedy had largely stayed out of public politics until earlier this year when she issued a high-profile endorsement of Obama's presidential candidacy. The endorsement, made with another of her uncles, Massachusetts Senator Edward M. "Ted" Kennedy, came at a critical time in the nomination battle between Obama and Hillary Clinton. In August, Caroline Kennedy introduced her uncle, who is suffering from a terminal brain tumor, in a highly emotional appearance at the Democratic National Convention. In the match-up with King, Kennedy gets support from 74% of Democrats and holds a 12-point lead among unaffiliated voters. King is supported by 73% of Republicans. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIES42% Support Health Care Reform After Release of Pelosi's Version 49% See GOP Takeover of Congress Next Year As Possible What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Americans Favor Home Buyer Tax Credit Until They Hear How Much It Costs 30% Favor One Party Running the White House and Congress Voters Divided On Whether Passing Good Legislation More Important Than Killing Bad Bills 45% for Obama, 49% Against – If Election Were Held Right Now President Obama: One Year After Winning it All There Is No Honor; There's Only Killing By Debra J. Saunders Advertisement
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