Barack Obama said repeatedly on the campaign trail that the war on terror was being fought on the wrong front, and 71% of American adults say he is likely to send more troops to Afghanistan in his first year in the White House. Forty-five percent (45%) say it’s Very Likely.

Just four percent (4%) say it is not at all likely to happen, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Americans also expect things to get worse in Afghanistan over the next year. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they will get better, and 20% believe things will stay about the same. Fourteen percent (14%) aren’t sure.

Obama is just a point below his highest level to date in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index for Monday.

While Obama talked of shifting troops from Iraq to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan, 62% say it is Very Likely that U.S. combat troops will still be in Iraq at the end of the year, with another 25% saying it is somewhat likely.

Americans are more optimistic about Iraq in the long-term. Fifty-three percent (53%) say U.S. combat troops are still likely to be there four years from now, but just 26% say that is Very Likely to be the case. Only eight percent (8%) believe it is not at all likely that combat troops will still be in Iraq.

A partisan divide was clear throughout the survey, however, with Democrats far more confident about Obama’s dealings in Afghanistan and Iraq than Republicans and those not affiliated with either major party.

Last month, confidence in the War on Terror was at its lowest level since July. Only 46% of voters believed the United States and its allies are winning that war, while 24% said the terrorists are winning.

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The elusive Osama bin Laden is unlikely to be captured or killed in the next year either, most Americans say. Twenty-one percent (21%) believe that is likely, with just four percent (4%) saying it is Very Likely. Virtually the identical number (22%) say the killing or capturing of the chief architect of the 9/11 attacks is not at all likely to occur.

The United States attacked Afghanistan in October 2001 after the radical Islamic Taliban government in the country refused to surrender bin Laden and other al-Qaeda terrorists who trained there. Democratic institutions were restored, but the Taliban has been resurgent in the last two years, driving up the number of U.S. and NATO military deaths.

The United States now has 32,000 troops in Afghanistan and is expected to add up to 30,000 more in the coming months. One-hundred-fifty-one U.S. military personnel were killed there in 2008.

Most voters expect terrorists or Iran to provide Obama’s first international test as president.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of men believe it is Very Likely that Obama will send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan in 2009, compared to 30% of women. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republicans and 50% of unaffiliateds share that view versus just 36% of Democrats.

Pluralities of GOP (46%) and unaffiliateds (43%) expect things to get worse in Afghanistan over the next year, but only 28% of Democrats agree. Thirty percent (30%) of both Republicans and Democrats say things will get better, compared to 26% of those not affiliated with one of the major parties. Twenty-three percent (23%) of Democrats believe Afghanistan will remain about the same, a view shared by 17% of the other two groups.

Republicans and unaffiliateds also are far more pessimistic about Iraq than Democrats are. A bare majority of Democrats (51%) say it is Very Likely that U.S. combat troops will still be in Iraq at the end of 2009, compared to 72% of Republicans and 65% of unaffiliateds.

Looking ahead four years, 43% of Republicans say it is Very Likely U.S. combat troops will still be in Iraq, but just 12% of Democrats agree. Twenty-five percent (25%) of those not affiliated with either party share that opinion.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of men also believe it is Very Likely that U.S. combat troops will still be in Iraq at the end of Obama’s first term, while only 15% of women agree.

One-quarter of men (25%) say it is not at all likely that bin Laden will be killed or captured within the next year, and 19% of women concur. Republicans and unaffiliateds were more than twice as likely as Democrats to agree.

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