Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Some people have questioned our findings reported Monday that Donald Trump has edged slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton among likely voters nationally. Given the margin of error, it’s more accurate to call the race a tie.
Their complaint is that because we called landline telephones for that survey we didn’t reach cell phone-centric millennials. But guess again.
All Rasmussen Reports' survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation.
But, as we make quite clear on our website, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel to reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones. We’ve been using this methodology since 2011, increasing its use systematically since then to account for the changing telephone habits of Americans.
At a time when the polling industry is struggling to maintain its credibility, we’re pretty comfortable with our results, although we can always do better.
Oh, and by the way, a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll echoes our latest Clinton-Trump findings. It shows Clinton with just a six-point advantage. But that survey tracks all Americans and not just likely voters, so it leans Democrat because Republicans are more likely to vote. Factor in the margin of error, and guess what?
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