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78% of GOP Voters Say Next President Likely to Be A Republican
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Forty-five percent (45%) of Republican voters are Very Confident that a candidate from their party will be the next president after Barack Obama, contrary to reports that suggest the GOP may be demoralized from the Democrat’s big win last Tuesday.

Another 33% of GOP voters say a Republican is at least somewhat likely to be the next occupant of the White House, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Put it all together and 78% of Republican voters say it’s likely their party will provide the nation’s 45th President.

Among all voters, half (50%) say it is at least somewhat likely that a Republican will follow Obama, while 33% say such an outcome is not likely.

Democrats understandably are the most skeptical, with just 31% saying a Republican victory following Obama is at least somewhat likely.

But a plurality of unaffiliated voters (47%) see it as at least somewhat likely that a GOP candidate will be the next president, and 29% say that is Very Likely. Only five percent (5%) of unaffiliateds think it is not at all likely.

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Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republican voters also say it is more important for their party to stand for what it believes in than it is for the party to work with President Obama. Twenty-six percent (26%) of GOP voters say working with Obama is more important.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Democrats say it is more important for the Republican Party to work with the incoming Democratic president. Fifty-one percent (51%) of unaffiliated voters agree, but 42% think it is more important for the GOP to stand for what it believes in.

In a survey the day after Obama’s election, voters were evenly divided over whether politics in Washington will be more partisan or more cooperative. Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters say Obama set the right tone at his first post-election press conference on Friday, although 49% of Republicans disagreed.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index for Monday shows Obama at +17, up from +8 on the night after the election. The Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove of his performance from the number who Strongly Approve.

Further explaining the GOP’s big losses in the Senate and the House last week, 68% of Republican voters say the party’s representatives in Congress have lost touch with the voters who elected them over the past several years. Just 24% of GOP voters think Republicans in Congress have done a good job representing the party’s values in recent years. Eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Democrats and 74% of unaffiliated voters believe Republicans in Congress have lost touch with GOP voters, too. Older voters are more critical of the Republican Congress than younger voters.

Given the outcome of the election and his record low job approval ratings, it’s not surprising that 67% of voters say the Bush Administration has been bad for the Republican Party. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republicans share that view, as do 82% of Democrats and 65% of unaffiliated voters. Only 31% of Republicans think Bush has been good for the party, with 18% undecided.

Republicans voters have mixed feelings about John McCain’s bid for the presidency. Fifty percent (50%) of all voters say McCain’s campaign was bad for the Republican Party, and 38% of GOP voters agree. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Republicans think McCain’s run was good for the party, compared to 35% of voters overall.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republican voters in a survey after the election said Alaska Governor Sarah Palin helped McCain’s campaign, even amid news stories that some McCain staffers think she hurt the ticket. Palin is also far-and-away the early favorite among Republicans for their next presidential nominee.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of conservatives think it is more important for the Republican Party to stand for what it believes in versus 88% of liberals who believe the GOP’s priority should be working with Obama, Moderates by over 50 points think Republicans should work with the new president first.

Male and female voters are fairly closed aligned, with majorities of both groups agreeing that the GOP Congress has been out of touch with voters and that it is more important for the Republicans to stand for what they believe in.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
November 9, 2008

How likely is it the next President will be Republican?

Very Likely

26%

Somewhat Likely

24%

Not Very Likely

25%

Not at all Likely

8%

Not Sure

16%

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