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Election 2010: Ohio Senate Race
2010 Ohio Senate: Portman, Lee, Brunner in Virtual Tie
Friday, September 25, 2009
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Next year’s U.S. Senate race in Ohio is a neck-and-neck battle for Republican Rob Portman no matter which Democratic candidate he faces, according to the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state. Portman is in a virtual tie with Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 41% to 40%. Six percent (6%) of Ohio voters favor some other candidate, and 14% are undecided. The former GOP congressman is also essentially even with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, leading by a similarly insignificant 40% to 38% margin. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure how they will vote in this race. All three are announced candidates for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator George Voinovich. For Portman, who also served as the director of the Office of Management and Budget and as the U.S. Trade Representative during the Bush presidency, a big initial challenge is to increase his name recognition statewide. His rivals who hold state offices are slightly better known to Ohio voters at this point. (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. Among Democratic voters, Fisher runs slightly better than Brunner against Portman. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer Portman against either Democrat. Thirteen percent (13%) of Ohio voters have a very favorable view of Portman, while six percent (6%) have a very unfavorable opinion of him. For Fisher, very favorables total 16%, very unfavorables 10%. Brunner is viewed very favorably by 13% and very unfavorably by 17%. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers. Six percent (6%) of voters in Ohio rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Fifty-three percent (53%) say it’s poor. While 29% say the economy is getting better, 41% say it’s getting worse, while 24% think it’s staying the same. Still, 49% worry the federal government will do too much in reacting to the country’s economic problems. Thirty-six percent (36%) worry the government won’t do enough. Forty-four percent (44%) of Ohio voters favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, but 52% oppose it. As in most other states, the antis feel much more strongly than those who support the plan: 45% in Ohio strongly oppose it, while 27% strongly favor it. These numbers are roughly comparable to the most recent findings on the plan nationally. In Ohio, 26% of voters say the quality of health care will improve if the plan passes Congress, but 51% say it will get worse. Fifty percent (50%) think the cost of health care will go up if the plan passes. Twenty-one percent (21%) say the cost will go down. Sixty-one percent (61%) anticipate that the cost of the health care plan will increase the federal budget deficit and 77% of Ohio voters think it is at least somewhat likely that taxes will be raised on the middle class to pay for the health care plan if it passes. Key to any Democrat’s political fortunes next year will be how voters view whatever comes of the health care reform effort and also how they see the president at that time. Obama carried Ohio over Republican John McCain 51% to 47% last November. Right now, Ohio voters are fairly evenly divided over the president’s performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) approve of the job he is doing, including 33% who strongly approve. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove, with 40% who strongly disapprove. These numbers are roughly comparable to Obama’s ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying other potential 2010 Senate match-ups and already has recently released findings from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York and North Carolina. We also have released data on the 2009 governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia and the 2010 governor’s races in Colorado, Iowa and New York. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Ohio voters approve of Governor Ted Strickland’s job performance, with 15% who strongly approve. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove, including 26% who strongly disapprove of the job the Democrat is doing. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Ohio Survey of 500 Likely Voters
TOP STORIESVoters’ Opinions of Congressional Leaders Remain Steady Democrats & Unaffiliateds More Likely To Be Unemployed Than Republicans To Create Jobs, Voters Say Cut Taxes and Stop Spending Brown Ensnared in His Own Tapegate Trap By Debra J. Saunders Support for Congressional Health Care Proposal Up to 47%, 49% Opposed Republicans Maintain Steady Lead on Generic Ballot 42% Rate Geithner’s Performance As Poor 47% Trust Private Sector More Than Government To Keep Health Care Costs Down, Quality Up Voters Continue to See Deficit Reduction as Top Priority Advertisement
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