There’s been virtually no change over the past two months in the hypothetical Election 2010 Senate match-up in New York State between Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand and former Governor George Pataki. Including the fact that Pataki still hasn’t announced for the race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Gillibrand leading Pataki 45% to 42%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent are undecided. The survey was taken Tuesday night prior to news reports that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is planning to run against Gillibrand.

In September, Gillibrand earned 44% of the vote to Pataki’s 41%.

Male voters prefer Gillibrand by seven points, while women are almost evenly divided. Voters not affiliated with either major party favor Pataki by 22 points.

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Gillibrand, appointed by Governor David Paterson to the seat held by Hillary Clinton, was coolly received by liberals in her own party because of her positions on a number of issues. But now 85% of liberals support her, while 69% of conservatives like Pataki better.

Pataki, governor of New York from 1995 to 2006, has indicated an interest in the race but has yet to declare.

New York is in the unusual position of having two U.S. Senate elections next year – a regularly scheduled one because Charles Schumer’s second six-year term is drawing to a close and a special one to fill out the remaining two years of Clinton’s six-year term. Paterson named Gillibrand, then a member of the House, to Cinton’s seat until the special election could be held.

That decision and the state’s growing budget crisis have caused Paterson’s poll numbers to plummet. Paterson, who still vows to run for reelection next year, trails his likeliest Republican challengers, while state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is widely expected to challenge him for the party’s gubernatorial nomination. In Rasmussen polling, Cuomo beats the only Republican who has declared for the governor’s race, former Congressman Rick Lazio, but is now virtually tied with Giuliani. The latter, however, signaled today that he is not interested in the gubernatorial race.

Gillibrand is viewed very favorably by 10% of New York voters and very unfavorably by 13%. Nearly one-in-four (23%) don’t know enough about her to even venture a soft opinion, a reflection of the fact that she’s only held a statewide office since January.

Fourteen percent (14%) have a very favorable opinion of Pataki, while 20% view him very unfavorably. Only six percent (6%) are not sure of what they think of the ex-governor.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters in New York favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, down five points from September, while 42% are opposed. Thirty percent (30%) strongly favor it, and 33% strongly oppose. Support for the plan is higher in New York than it is nationally.

New York voters with health insurance are evenly divided over whether passage of the plan will force them to change their own coverage. Forty-three percent (43%) say it is likely to make them change, and 21% say it’s very likely. But 44% think that’s unlikely, including 16% who say it’s not at all likely. These findings are virtually identical to those found nationwide.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of New York voters continue to approve of Obama’s job performance, with 40% who strongly approve. The latter number is down eight points from September but is still well ahead of the findings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Forty-one percent (41%) disapprove of the job the president is doing, with 31% who strongly disapprove.

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