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Election 2010: Nevada Senate Race
Harry Reid Trails Republican Challengers in 2010 Election
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In what is currently a difficult political climate for Democrats, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trails two potential Republican challengers seeking to unseat him as he faces reelection next year in Nevada.

The first Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of the 2010 race shows Sue Lowden beating Reid by 10 percentage points, 50% to 40%. Lowden is chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and the preferred candidate of the Republican party establishment.

GOP hopeful Danny Tarkanian beats Reid by seven points, 50% to 43%. Tarkanian is a former basketball player for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and the son of a legendary college basketball coach.

Any incumbent who polls below the 50% level is considered potentially vulnerable, and Reid is clearly in that category. Likely to help him somewhat, however, are the problems the state GOP is experiencing, with a highly unpopular governor and the state's other senator, John Ensign, forced to disclose an extramartial affair.

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The health care debate is not helping the majority leader, though. Most Nevada voters (52%) oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, while 45% favor it. These figures are fairly close to the national average. As is the case across the country, intensity is with the opposition. Just 29% of Nevada voters Strongly Favor the congressional plan while 46% are Strongly Opposed.

Support for the health care plan is closely correlated to voting preferences. Among those who oppose the proposed health care plan, Reid’s support is in the single digits against both Republicans. However, among those who support the health care effort, support for Reid's GOP challengers is in single digits.

Seventy-four percent (74%) believe the proposed health care plan will likely lead to higher taxes for the middle class, while 65% believe passage will lead to higher deficits. Fifty-one percent (51%) say it will lower the quality of care, and 49% believe it will drive the cost of health care up. Only 25% believe the proposed reform will achieve its stated goal of reducing health care costs.

Overall, 45% have a favorable opinion of their longtime Democratic senator while 54% offer an unfavorable review. Those figures include just 20% with a Very Favorable opinion of Reid while 42% have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

The senator’s challengers are less well known. Just nine percent (9%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Lowden while 10% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Tarkanian, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 10% Very Unfavorable.

Nationally, 49% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Reid, while 27% view him favorably.

Just four percent (4%) of Nevada voters rate the national economy as good or excellent while 58% say it is poor. Thirty-two percent (32%) say things are getting better, but 39% say they are getting worse. Forty-seven percent (47%) worry that the federal government will do too much in responding to the economic crisis while 43% fear it will not do enough.

Most voters nationally continue to blame President George W. Bush for the nation’s economic problems.

Rasmussen Reports last week began surveying other potential 2010 Senate match-ups in Colorado and Connecticut.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in NV
September 14, 2009

Election 2010: Nevada Senate Race

Sue Lowden (R)

50%

Harry Reid (D)

40%

Some other candidate

4%

Not sure

5%

Election 2010: Nevada Senate Race

Danny Tarkanian (R)

50%

Harry Reid (D)

43%

Other

4%

Not sure

3%

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