State Attorney General Martha Coakley is the early leader in the Democratic race to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of longtime Massachusetts Senator Edward M. “Ted” Kennedy.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Massachusetts Democratic Primary voters finds Coakley, the only officially declared candidate for the post, with 38% of the vote. But one-in-four primary voters (25%) are undecided.

Next is Stephen Lynch, a U.S. congressman from South Boston, with 11% support, followed closed by Rep. Ed Markey, the state’s senior member of the U.S. House of Representatives, with 10%.

Seven percent (7%) favor another congressman. Michael Capuano of Somerville, while just three percent (3%) support Rep. John Tierney, the U.S. congressman from Salem. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate.

And already at least one other Democratic candidate - Alan Khazei, the head of a Boston-based national community service program – has indicated that he may get in the race. Several Republicans are interested as well, but Democrats are heavily favored given the party make-up of the Bay State.

Rasmussen Reports conducted the survey Tuesday night after the race was thrown wide open by former Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy II’s decision not to seek his late uncle’s seat. Senator Kennedy died August 25 of brain cancer.

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Party primaries for the Senate seat will be held on December 8. The special election will be January 19.
Working in Coakley’s favor at this point is that she already has won a statewide election and thus is the best known of the candidates. Only 17% don’t have an opinion about her, compared to 29% or more who say the same of the others who are considering a run for the Senate seat.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Democratic primary voters have a very favorable opinion of Coakley, the first woman elected attorney general in the state, while just five percent (5%) view her very unfavorably.
Markey, who has been in the House since 1976, comes next, with 12% who see him very favorably and 10% very unfavorably. Nine percent (9%) give very favorable marks to Lynch, while seven percent (7%) see him very unfavorably.

Seven percent (7%) have a very favorable opinion of Capuano, but six percent (6%) say their view of the congressman is very unfavorable. For Tierney, those with a very favorable view total five percent (5%), while those with a very unfavorable opinion of him are higher at nine percent (9%).

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The state legislature is now considering Kennedy’s dying request that the governor be allowed to appoint an interim senator to serve until the special election so that the state has full representation in the U.S. Senate when the health care reform bill proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats is voted on.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters in the state favored an interim appointment at the time Kennedy made the request in August. Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on the interim question on Thursday, and also will look at the potential Republican candidacy of former Boston Red Sox star pitcher Curt Schilling for the Kennedy seat.

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