Charlie Crist holds a solid lead in Florida’s race for the U.S. Senate seat now held by retiring Republican Senator Mel Martinez, but the election’s over 16 months away.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Florida voters shows the state’s popular GOP governor handily beating the two Democrats who have announced for the open Senate seat, Kendrick Meek and Corrine Brown, both now members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Crist tops Brown by a 21-point margin, 50% to 29%, with eight percent (8%) favoring some other candidate and 13% undecided.

Against Meek, Crist wins by a slightly narrower 18-point spread, 46% to 28%. Twelve percent (12%) prefer some other candidate, and 14% are not sure which candidate they’ll vote for.

Brown carries just over half of the Democratic vote (53%) in a match-up with Crist, while Meek carries 59% of Democrats in a two-man race. Once Democrats agree on a nominee, however, the level of Democratic support is sure to go up.

Crist now has the support of at least 70% of Republicans against either candidate.

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Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Crist, including 20% very favorable. Thirty-six percent (36%) view the governor unfavorably, with 16% whose opinion is very unfavorable. Just eight percent (8%) have no opinion of Crist.

For Brown, favorables are 36%, including 11% very favorable. Unfavorables are 38%, with 18% who have a very unfavorable opinion of the congresswoman. But as is often the case for first-time statewide candidates, a large number of voters (26%) don’t know enough about Brown to have an opinion of her at this time.

Meek is viewed favorably by 37%, with 14% who have a very favorable view of him. Thirty-six percent (36%) view the congressman unfavorably, including 15% whose opinion is very unfavorable. Twenty-eight percent (28%) aren’t sure what they think of Meek.

In a survey in April before either Democrat was formally in the race, 57% of Florida voters said it was at least somewhat likely they would vote for Crist in the 2010 Senate race. Thirty-seven percent (37%) said they were unlikely to do so.

Sixty percent (60%) of Florida voters now approve of the job Crist is doing as governor, with 15% who strongly approve. Thirty-six percent (36%) disapprove of his performance. Of the latter group, 16% strongly disapprove.

Critical to Crist’s success in the Senate race is how voters evaluate President Obama’s performance. Last November, the Democrat narrowly carried the state which had been won by Republicans in eight of the 10 previous presidential contests.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Florida voters now approve of Obama’s performance, including 32% who strongly approve. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove of the job the president is doing, with 38% who strongly disapprove. Obama fares worse in Florida now than he does nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In the 2008 election, Obama benefited from a large voter turnout among African-Americans. Both Brown and Meek are black which likely ensures a heavy turnout from that community again next November.
Crist also faces a potentially bruising intraparty challenge from Marco Rubio, the conservative former speaker of the Florida House. A Cuban-American, Rubio has strong support in that key Florida constituency.

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