Longtime Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, tarnished by last year's financial blow-up, continues to struggle as he prepares for a reelection bid in 2010.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone poll finds that Republican challenger Rob Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% in an early look at next year’s potential match-up. Five percent (5%) say they’d prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are not sure.

While Simmons, a former congressman, is the strongest early challenger to the Democratic incumbent, there are several other Republicans in the running. Dodd finds himself essentially even with state Senator Sam Caligiuri, former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley and Peter Schiff, the high-profile president of Euro Pacific Capital. In each of those match-ups, Dodd earns between 40% and 43% of the vote while the Republicans all fall in the same range.

Typically, when an incumbent polls below 50%, they are considered potentially vulnerable. Dodd certainly falls into that category.

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Dodd is viewed favorably by 40% of voters statewide and unfavorable by 59%. Those figures, weak for a long-term incumbent, include just 10% with a Very Favorable opinion and 39% with a Very Unfavorable view.

His challengers are less well-known. Just 13% have a Very Favorable opinion of Simmons while 10% hold a Very Unfavorable view.

Caligiuri is viewed Very Favorably by eight percent (8%), Schiff by six percent (6%) and Foley by four percent (4%). All three of these candidates have a slightly larger percentage who hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of them.

Just four percent (4%) of Connecticut voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 46% say it’s in poor shape. Thirty-six percent (36%) say the economy is getting better while 39% say worse. Forty-seven percent (47%) fear that the government will do too much in responding the economic problems while 44% fear it will do too little.

Fifty-two percent (52%) favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats while 46% are opposed. Those numbers suggest that Connecticut voters are a bit more supportive than voters nationwide. It should be noted that the survey was taken the night after the president’s speech to Congress to promote his health care plan, and national data shows a modest bounce in support for the plan.

The best piece of news in the poll for Dodd is that the president remains very popular. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Connecticut voters approve of the way Obama is performing as president. That’s well above his national Job Approval rating.

At the same time, however, 55% approve of the way Republican Governor Jodi Rell is doing her job.

Dodd, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has been hurt by his role in the banking and financial problems that erupted last year. Additionally, the overall political environment is challenging for Democrats at the moment. Republicans lead in both Virginia and New Jersey, the only states with governor’s races this year. Both states were won by the Democrats in 2008. Incumbent Demcoratic Colorado Governor Bill Ritter also trails in his 2010 bid for re-election.

Additionally, Republicans lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot and are doing well in early polling for Senate races in Colorado and Florida.

But Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that "it's way too early for Republicans to be celebrating. While Democrats are having a tough time right now, it’s important to remember that the mid-term elections are 14 months away. That’s plenty of time for the president’s party to do some damage control and pick up the pieces from what has been a tough August.”

For Republicans dreaming of another 1994-type election, Rasmussen adds, “Democrats in 2010 will have one advantage they couldn’t count on in 1994. During the Clinton years, nobody could remember a time when the GOP controlled Congress.”

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