The volatile 2010 Republican Primary race for governor in Texas has become a toss-up, with Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison currently inching ahead of incumbent Rick Perry by two points – 40% to 38%.

A new Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 telephone survey of Texas GOP Primary voters finds just three percent (3%) support Debra Medina, a tea party activist who joined the GOP race this month. But 19% are not sure who they favor.

Perry led Hutchison by 10 points in mid-July – 46% to 36%. In May, however, Perry led just 42% to 38%. This is the first survey that includes Medina.

Perry now leads among men, while Hutchison has the edge among likely women primary voters. The incumbent leads among those who identify themselves as conservatives, while Hutchison is ahead among party moderates and liberals.

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The war of words between the two major candidates has been escalating in recent weeks on everything from border security to the cost of the special election to replace Hutchison when she resigns from the Senate. With the two running so closely and both being so well-known in the state, the key to the contest ultimately may prove to be how their supporters turnout for the primary vote. Primaries traditionally are low turnout affairs.

Hutchison, who is seen as a more moderate alternative to the incumbent, has represented Texas in the U.S. Senate for 16 years. Perry is seeking an unprecedented third term as governor.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of primary voters view Perry favorably, with 22% very favorable toward him. Only 26% have an unfavorable view of the governor, with 10% very unfavorable.

Similarly, Hutchison has favorables totaling 71%, including 24% whose view of her is very favorable. Twenty-six percent (26%) also have an unfavorable opinion of the senator, with just seven percent (7%) very unfavorable.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of primary voters now approve of the job Perry is doing as governor, down five points from July. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disapprove of the governor’s performance. Perhaps more significantly, 20% strongly approve, down five points from the previous survey, while 12% strongly disapprove, up three points.

Perry won reelection in 2006 with 39% of the overall vote. Democrat Chris Bell earned 30%, followed by independent candidates Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Richard 'Kinky' Friedman with 18% and 12% support respectively.

Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying other potential 2010 gubernatorial match-ups and already has released findings from Colorado and New Hampshire. New numbers from this year’s governor’s race in Virginia will be released later today and we are regularly polling the race in New Jersey.

Rasmussen Reports has also recently released polling on the upcoming Senate races in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.

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