Bill Ritter trounced his Republican opponent to win Colorado’s governorship in 2006, but now in a state that has been trending Democratic and even hosted the party’s national convention last year, the incumbent Democrat may be facing problems in his 2010 reelection bid.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado finds Ritter trailing Republican challenger Scott McInnis by five points – 44% to 39% - in an early look at next year’s race for governor.
Ritter’s in a virtual tie with another GOP challenger, state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry. Ritter picks up 41% of the vote to Penry’s 40%.

In the Ritter-McInnis contest, seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate and 10% are not sure who to vote for. In the Ritter-Penry match-up, seven percent (7%) like another candidate, while 12% are undecided.

This is the first Rasmussen Reports look at 2010 races in Colorado. Potential Senate match-ups will be released at 5 pm EDT today.

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Political commentator Michael Barone sees President Obama’s big government initiatives as among the reasons why Ritter, after his double-digit win in 2006, is struggling against the two declared GOP candidates.

Colorado voters are evenly divided in their assessments of Ritter’s job performance, with 49% approving of it and the same number (49%) disapproving. But those who strongly disapprove of the job he is doing outnumber those who strongly approve by almost two-to-one – 29% to 15%.

Forty-seven percent (47%) have a favorable opinion of Ritter, including 25% who are very favorable toward him. Forty-two percent (42%) view the governor unfavorably, including 27% who have a very unfavorable view.

Just 10% have no opinion of Ritter, compared to 36% who say the same of McInnis and 49% who aren’t sure what they think of Penry. These numbers indicate that both Republicans aren’t well-known to many of their fellow Coloradans.

Eighteen percent (18%) have a very favorable opinion of McInnis, who served six terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, while eight percent (8%) view him very unfavorably. Penry, a rising star in the state GOP and the youngest member of the state Senate, is regarded very favorably by eight percent (8%) and very unfavorably by 11%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

McInnis and Penry are expected to have a spirited primary contest. Ironically, Penry worked in McInnis’ congressional office after graduating from college and has said he considers the ex-congressman his political mentor.

In a contest with Ritter, McInnis carries 90% of the GOP vote and closely splits the votes of those not affiliated with either party. Penry, in a race against the incumbent, earns 86% of the Republican vote and trails among unaffiliated by six points.

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