Republican Robert F. McDonnell has bounced back to a nine-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race to become Virginia’s next governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters finds McDonnell attracting 51% of the vote while Deeds picks up 42%.

Over the past two weeks, McDonnell’s support has gone up three percentage points while Deeds has lost four points. After closing to essentially a toss-up in mid-September, the race is back to where it was in early September, when the GOP hopeful held a nine-point advantage. In August, McDonnell was up by eight.

All of those figures include “leaners.” Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Premium Members can review the data without leaners and complete demographic crosstabs.

McDonnell’s lead at this time is essentially the same with and without leaners.

McDonnell holds a wide lead among unaffiliated voters. Both candidates draw strong support from within their own party.

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Through the first half of September, McDonnell was on the defensive following news stories about a college thesis paper he wrote in 1989. The thesis reflected very conservative views on the role of women in society and other topics. However, the impact of that issue may have peaked.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters now say the writings are at least somewhat important in terms of how they will vote. That’s little changed from two weeks ago.

But Deeds in a recent debate said a tax increase was one option for addressing the state's transportation needs, and McDonnell's campaign has seized on the comment, putting his rival on the defensive. By a 51% to 36% margin, voters trust the GOP candidate more on the tax issue. While that’s little changed from earlier surveys, it’s certainly a better topic for Republican candidates to discuss. The tax issue also may resonate because it can be tied to other state and national issues.

By a 45% to 32% margin, voters now trust McDonnell more than Deeds on the issue of transportation. Previous surveys had found voters evenly divided on the topic. One question that always surrounds the transportation debate is how to pay for the proposed improvements.

Additionally, the tax issue brings national politics into the race. Recent Virginia polling found that 78% of the state’s voters say passage of the health care plan being considered in Congress is likely to mean higher taxes for the middle class. Beyond that, Virginia was flooded last fall with Obama campaign ads promising tax cuts for 95% of all Americans. National polling shows that hardly anyone believes they will receive tax cuts during the Obama years while more than 40% now expect their own taxes to go up.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Virginia voters have a favorable view of McDonnell while 46% say the same about Deeds. McDonnell is down a point over the past two weeks while Deeds is down four.

Among those with strong opinions, McDonnell fares a bit better than Deeds. Twenty-nine percent (29%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the GOP candidate while 13% express a Very Unfavorable opinion. The comparable numbers for Deeds are 20% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable.

President Obama is viewed favorably by 52% of Virginia voters, up slightly from recent surveys.
Forty-six percent (46%) of Virginia voters favor the health care plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats. Fifty-one percent (51%) are opposed. Those figures are close to the national average.

Sixty-two percent (62%) say it will lead to higher deficits. Fifty-two percent (52%) believe it will lead to higher costs for health care, and 48% say the plan will lead to a lower quality of care.

Twelve percent (12%) of Virginia voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 46% say it's poor. Forty-three percent (43%) say the economy is getting better while 33% say it’s getting worse. Those views on the economy are quite a bit more upbeat than the national average.

In this year’s other big election contest, Republican challenger Chris Christie still leads incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in the New Jersey governor’s race. However, Christie’s lead has slipped in the most recent polling.

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