Republican Bob McDonnell has lengthened his lead on all three Democratic hopefuls in the race to be Virginia’s next governor, but it’s a long way to Election Day.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the closest race is between McDonnell, the former attorney general and lone GOP candidate, and Brian J. Moran, a former state delegate from Alexandria. McDonnell now leads Moran by 10 points, 44% to 34%.

The highest profile Democrat in the race is next. Terry McAuliffe, a longtime Clinton confidant and former national party chairman, trails McDonnell by 12 points, 45% to 33%.

State Delegate R. Creigh Deeds of Bath County continues to fare the worst against his Republican opponent. McDonnell leads Deeds by 15 points, 45% to 30%.

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Virginia Democrats will pick their gubernatorial nominee in a June 9 primary and it is likely that the Democratic Primary competition is having an impact on the General Election polls. Each of the three Democratic candidates attracts a relatively low level of support from within their own party in the current polls. There are a correspondingly large number of Democrats who are undecided. This suggests that some Primary supporters of each Democrat are unwilling to admit they will vote for the Democratic nominee if their favored candidate is not selected.

A similar phenomenon was observed last year in the Democratic Presidential nomination contest. Many supporters of Hillary Clinton said during the primaries that they would not support Barack Obama against John McCain. Once Obama captured the nomination, he enjoyed a bounce in the polls.

In a survey in early February, McDonnell led his three Democratic challengers by three to nine points and in the same order as the current poll. For McAuliffe, the results are bound to be disappointing since he has raised nearly $5 million for the race and has far outspent his opponents to raise his name recognition in the state.

Virginia also has been trending Democratic in recent years. Barack Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1964. The state also has its second popular Democratic governor in a row, although his approval numbers are down slightly from February.
Fifty-six percent (56%) now approve of Governor Tim Kaine’s job performance, while 40% disapprove.Voters in the state are evenly divided on whether Kaine’s other job as chairman of the Democratic National Committee helps or hurts Virginia.

Of all four gubernatorial candidates, McDonnell has seen the biggest increase in his voter favorables since the last survey. By contrast, all three Democrats have seen bigger increases in their unfavorability ratings than in their favorables. But sizable numbers of Virginia voters still don’t know enough about any of the candidates to express an opinion of them.

McAuliffe now is also regarded more favorably by Democratic voters than his two primary opponents.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) now have a favorable view of McDonnell, while just 16% rate him unfavorably. Twenty-six percent (26%) are undecided.
McAuliffe is seen favorably by 35% of voters and unfavorably by 43%. Twenty-three percent (23%) are not sure what they think of him.
For Moran, favorables are 34% and unfavorables are 38%, with 28% not sure.

Deeds is regarded favorably by 33% of the state’s voters and unfavorably by 35%. But 32% have no opinion of him.

Fifty-six percent (56%) approve of President Obama’s job performance, down eight points from February, while 44% disapprove.

Seventy-six percent (76%) say Virginia should require all sellers at gun shows to do background checks on buyers. Just 17 percent disagree. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and other gun control advocates launched a TV ad in Virginia this week criticizing McDonnell for his support of a loophole in the state’s current gun laws that allows occasional sellers at gun shows not to make background checks.

Forty-five percent (45%) say part-time workers in the state should be eligible for unemployment benefits, but 40% disagree. The state legislature is now battling over a legal change that would make that possible, with Kaine and Democrats in favor of the change and Republicans opposed.

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