The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters found Republican Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith with leads over his Democratic challengers. Smith leads Jeff Merkley 48% to 30% and Steve Novick 48% to 35% in head-to-head match-ups. While the Senator may find some comfort in a double-digit margin, any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable.

Smith has a distinct advantage among unaffiliated voters in the Beaver State. The incumbent enjoys a seventeen-point lead over Merkley among voters not affiliated with either party and a nine-point lead over Novick.

As the incumbent, Smith is far better known than either of his challengers. Over half of voters (57%) view Smith favorably while 38% give him an unfavorable rating. Merkley is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 30%, while another 38% are not sure. Thirty-six percent (36%) give Novick a favorable rating, 26% give him an unfavorable rating, and 37% are not sure.

When it comes to the upcoming election, the economy is the most important issue for 28% of Oregon voters, with the War in Iraq coming in close behind at 24%. Fourteen percent (14%) of Oregon voters think immigration is the highest priority.

In Oregon’s Presidential race John McCain leads Hillary Clinton but Barack Obama leads McCain. That same dynamic is found nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Smith is strongly favored to retain his Senate Seat in Election 2008 (current prices: Republican % Democrat %). Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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