Friday, October 31, 2008

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Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley has taken a slight lead over incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in Oregon’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Merkley at 49% and Smith at 46%. Four percent (4%) say they’ll vote for some other candidate, most likely Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow. One percent (1%) of voters in the state remain undecided.

In May, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show this race to be a toss-up. In July, a Rasmussen poll was the first to show Merkley ahead. Later polls showed Smith regaining a lead, but the race has remained very close: Smith was up by one in September while the candidates were tied two weeks ago.

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Smith is viewed favorably by 50% of voters statewide. Merkley earns positive reviews from 49%.

Smith, who is seeking a third term in the Senate, is supported by 90% of the state’s Republicans and 41% of unaffiliated voters. Merkley, the speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, is backed by 87% of Democrats and 44% of unaffiliated voters.

The two candidates are tied among men, while Merkley leads by six among women (see full demographic crosstabs).

Merkley may get some help from the top of the ticket as Barack Obama is doing very well in the race for Oregon’s Electoral College votes. New numbers on that race will be released over the weekend.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Smith a % chance of keeping his Senate seat. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.

Along with Smith’s, other Republican Senate seats at risk this year include ones in Alaska, North Carolina, Georgia,New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia. Forty-five percent (45%) of Oregon voters give Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski good or excellent marks for job performance while 27% say he’s doing a poor job.

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