Thursday, September 25, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in North Carolina finds Democratic challenger Kay Hagan with 48% of the vote and the incumbent United States Senator Elizabeth Dole three points behind with 45%.

That’s a slight improvement for Dole who trailed by six just a few days ago, but it’s never comfortable for an incumbent to be trailing this late in the campaign season. Adding to Dole’s problems is the fact that John McCain finds himself in a very tight race with Barack Obama for North Carolina’s Electoral College votes. That means Dole can’t count on the lift from the top of the ticket usually enjoyed by the state’s GOP candidates.

Hagan leads among those who earn less than $40,000 a year while Dole leads among higher income voters. Dole also leads among regular churchgoers while Hagan leads among those who rarely attend services (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Dole was elected to the Senate in 2002 to become the first female Senator in North Carolina's history. She currently serves on three Senate committees, including the Committee on Armed Services. Attorney Hagan is currently serving her fifth term in the state's Senate.

Dole is viewed favorably by 52% of the voters in her state, Hagan by 51%.

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Rasmussen Markets data gives Dole a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Dole's numbers in North Carolina are bad news for a party that had seemed to be making progress in recent week. Many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia.

The only Democratic incumbent polling below 50% is New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg.

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