Thursday, July 17, 2008

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North Carolina’s Republican Senator, Elizabeth Dole, continues to hold onto a solid lead over Democratic challenger Kay Hagan. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the incumbent ahead 53% to 41% in the Tar Heel State.

When “leaners” are included, Dole is ahead 54% to 43%. Dole’s lead is slightly smaller than last month, when she had a fourteen-point advantage. Hagan managed to pull ahead in May, but that was little more than a bounce following her primary victory. A television ad campaign by Dole quickly opened a double digit lead.

Dole was elected to the Senate in 2002 to become the first female Senator in North Carolina’s history. She currently serves on three Senate committees, including the Committee on Armed Services. Attorney Hagan is currently serving her fifth term in the state’s Senate.

The incumbent is backed by 88% of Republicans and 26% of Democrats in North Carolina. Hagan’s support comes from 71% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Dole has a 53% to 37% edge.

Women are more evenly divided than men between the two female candidates. While Dole leads 58% to 38% among men, she leads 50% to 44% among women.

Dole is viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 34% of voters in North Carolina. Hagan’s numbers are 52% favorable, 34% unfavorable. While Hagan’s favorability rating jumped from 45% last month, Dole’s slipped one point.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Dole a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Dole’s numbers in North Carolina are good news for a party that is struggling in many states to maintain its seats in November. At least nine Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, Virginia, and Kentucky.

North Carolina Governor Mike Easely earns good or excellent ratings from 38% of voters, while 23% say he is doing a poor job. The gubernatorial race in the Tar Heel State is essentially even.

The state’s Presidential race is much closer than the Republicans would like in the historically red state.

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