Thursday, October 30, 2008

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Democrat Kay Hagan now holds a six-point lead over incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Tar Heel State shows Hagan with 52% of the vote and Dole with 46%. Three weeks ago, Hagan held a five-point advantage.

This is the fourth straight Rasmussen Reports survey to show Hagan in the lead. In May, Rasmussen Reports was the first polling firm to show Hagan ahead of Dole, a result that was harshly challenged by the Dole campaign. Over the summer, a television advertising blitz put Dole back on top until mid-September.

Tar Heel opinions of the incumbent continue to slide. Just 46% of voters statewide now have a favorable opinion of her, down from 49% earlier this month. Fifty percent (50%) have an unfavorable opinion of Dole, including 31% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Fifty-three percent (53%) have a favorable opinion of Hagan, up three points from the previous poll. Forty-two percent (42%) offer an unfavorable opinion, including 23% with a Very Unfavorable view.

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Hagan leads by 12 among women while the candidates evenly divide the male vote. Hagan leads 69% to 30% among voters who consider the economy to be the top issue of Election 2008 (see full demographic crosstabs).

Dole’s decline follows a national trend that has hurt Republicans across the country. John McCain was slightly ahead of Barack Obama in early September, just before the financial debacle on Wall Street became visible. Obama has held a steady lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for a full month.

Adding to Dole’s problems is the fact that John McCain finds himself in a very tight race with Barack Obama for North Carolina’s Electoral College votes. That means Dole can’t count on the lift from the top of the ticket usually enjoyed by the state’s GOP candidates. New data on the Presidential race will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today.

Dole is far from the only endangered Republican Senator in Election 2008. Many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including ones in Alaska, Georgia, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia. Democrats also think they have a shot at Mitch McConnell’s seat in Kentucky.

Dole was elected to the Senate in 2002, the first female senator in North Carolina's history. She currently serves on three Senate committees, including the Committee on Armed Services.

Hagan, an attorney, is currently serving her fifth term in the State Senate.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Dole a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.
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