Wednesday, July 09, 2008

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Democrat Frank Lautenberg, seeking a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, can breathe a little easier this month. The incumbent leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 49% to 36% in the latest Rasmussen reports telephone survey in New Jersey. When “leaners” are included, Lautenberg leads the Republican 50% to 37%.

Last month, the two candidates were virtual tied, with Lautenberg on top by just a single percentage point. That poll was taken just days after Lautenberg survived a primary challenge that raised questions about whether he was too old to serve.

Still, while the new poll provides better news for the Democrat, any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. Lautenberg has been just below the 50% mark in the last several Rasmussen polls and in polls conducted by other organizations. Lautenberg is one of only two Democratic senators seeking re-election who is polling below 50% (the other is Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu).

Many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, Virginia, and Kentucky. As a result, Democrats are expected to add several seats to their Senate majority this November.

Lautenberg has a solid 55% to 29% lead among women in New Jersey, but trails Zimmer 45% to 41% among men. The incumbent is backed by 85% of Democrats and 11% of Republicans in the state. Zimmer, a former U.S. congressman, earns support from 74% of Republicans and 7% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, Zimmer leads by fourteen.

Half of voters in the Garden State (50%) have a favorable opinion of Lautenberg, while 41% share an unfavorable view. Zimmer is viewed favorably by 45% of voters and unfavorably by 35%.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows current expectations for a Lautenberg victory are at %. These expectations are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Ratings for New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine (D) continue to slip. Just 27% of voters give him good or excellent ratings, while 40% say he is doing a poor job. Last month, his numbers were 29% good or excellent, and 37% poor.

While New Jersey is generally considered a Democratic state in Presidential elections, John McCain is more competitive than expected this year.

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