Friday, October 03, 2008

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In New Hampshire, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu by five percentage points, 50% to 45%, in the race for the U.S. Senate. Sununu is seeking a second term.

These latest numbers show quite a change from last month when Sununu was ahead for the only time this year. But they are more consistent with earlier polling in the race. In August, Sununu was down by 10, and in July he trailed by five.

The new numbers come from a poll that also shows Barack Obama opening a double-digit lead over John McCain in the race for New Hampshire’s Electoral College votes.

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In the Senate race, Shaheen is supported by 88% of Democrats and holds a 16-point lead among unaffiliated voters. A plurality of voters in New Hampshire are unaffiliated, refusing to claim allegiance to either major political party. Ninety percent (90%) of Republicans say they’ll vote for Sununu.

Shaheen leads by 17 points among women but trails by seven among men. The Democrat leads among those making less than $75,000 a year while the incumbent Republican does better among those with higher incomes. Regular churchgoers favor Sununu; those who do not attend services favor Shaheen (full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members). Learn More.

Shaheen, the first woman governor of New Hampshire, served from 1997 to 2003. She is viewed favorably by 54% of New Hampshire voters.

Sununu, at 44 the youngest U.S. senator, was elected to the Senate in 2002 when he defeated Shaheen by a 51% to 46% margin. Fifty-one percent (51%) of New Hampshire voters now have a favorable opinion of him.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered vulnerable. Only once all year has Sununu even managed to attract more than 45% support. But New Hampshire is not the only Republican Senate seat at risk this season. Democrats are hoping for pick-ups in Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, North Carolina and Virginia.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Shaheen has a Democratic Party Candidate to Win New Hampshire Senate Race% chance of winning New Hampshire’s Senate race in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.