Thursday, June 26, 2008

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Appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R), seeking to win the job on his own, remains in a pure toss-up with former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Mississippi found Wicker attracts 48% of the vote, while Musgrove earns support from 47%.

Last month, it was Musgrove with the single point lead, 47% to 46%. University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has noted that this will be a “real political battle” which is “a rarity in a state that’s usually red as red can be.” Mississippi is in the unusual position of having two U.S. Senate races this year due to the retirement of Trent Lott. In December, Wicker was appointed to replace Lott by Governor Haley Barbour. Barbour also set November as the date for an election to replace Lott. Democrats had hoped to have a special election much sooner to avoid giving Wicker eleven months of incumbency. However, the State Supreme Court ruled that the November date would stand.

Wicker leads 54% to 41% among men, while Musgrove has a 52% to 43% advantage among women. Both candidates earn the same amount of support from their own parties. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Wicker leads 53% to 41%.

Wicker is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 32%. Musgrove’s numbers are 47% favorable, 44% unfavorable.

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour’s ratings have changed little over the past month. The Republican governor earns good or excellent ratings from 53%, while 19% give him a poor rating.

In the other Mississippi Senate race, Thad Cochran enjoys a sizable lead and should cruise to re-election.

Wicker is far from the only Republican who is vulnerable in the 2008 election. Early polling has shown many other Republican Senate seats are potentially in play including seats in Virginia, Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Texas.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Wicker is currently given a % chance of keeping his job with a victory in November. This figure is updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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