Monday, September 22, 2008

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Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has inched ahead of Al Franken in Minnesota’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, with the introduction of a third-party candidate having virtually no impact on the contest so far.

Coleman, who is seeking a second term in the Senate, is ahead of Franken, a TV comedy writer and longtime Democratic activist, by a statistically insignificant one percentage point, 48% to 47%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Last month Coleman and Franken were tied at 45% each.

Coleman has been under the 50% level of support in eight-out-of-nine polls conducted this year, always a sign an incumbent is potentially vulnerable. He was first elected to the Senate six years ago, with just under 50% of the vote.

The new survey was conducted prior to reports that Franken had taken time from his campaign to co-write a skit belittling Republican presidential candidate John McCain for this past weekend’s Saturday Night Live.

Independent candidate Dean Barkley registered three percent (3%) of the vote. This is the first survey of state voters that includes Barkley, the founder of the Minnesota Independence Party, who entered the race in July. In 1998, his party’s nominee, former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura, defeated Coleman and a Democratic candidate for governor of Minnesota. Barkely entered the Senate race after Ventura decided not to.

Barack Obama has opened an eight-point lead over McCain in Minnesota, although nationally the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.
Male voters prefer Coleman to Franken 57% to 39%. Women voters feel the opposite way by nearly identical numbers: They favor Franken 54% to 39%.

Coleman and Franken have nearly identical favorables and unfavorables, both in the 50% range. Barkley is seen at least somewhat favorably by 39% and at least somewhat unfavorably by 34%.

Both major party candidates have the support of nine-out-of-10 members of their respective parties. Coleman leads among unaffiliated voters 46% to 42%. Six percent (6%) of unaffiliateds support Barkley.

Fifty percent (50%) of Minnesota voters say Governor Tim Pawlenty, a finalist for the Republican vice presidential slot, is doing a good or excellent job. Twenty-one percent (21%) rate his performance as poor.

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This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

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