Tuesday, July 15, 2008

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The Michigan senate race has changed little over the past month. Democratic Senator Carl Levin continues to enjoy a big lead over State Representative Jack Hoogendyk, 54% to 33%. When “leaners” are included, the incumbent leads 59% to 36%.

Last month, Levin led 55% to 35%. In May, he led 54% to 37%. Levin has served in the United States Senate for the past thirty years. He has won each of his last three re-election bids with 58% to 60% of the vote. He has not faced a serious election threat since 1984. Levin is currently serving as Chairman of the Senate’s Committee on Armed Services.

In recent national elections, Michigan tends to lean Democratic. In 2004, John Kerry won by a narrow margin of 51% to 48%. Michigan has cast its seventeen Electoral College votes for the Democratic candidate in last four elections. Currently, the state is classified as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power calculator.

This month, Levin is backed by 86% of Michigan Democrats and 11% of Republicans. Hoogendyk’s support comes from 80% of Republicans and 6% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, Levin leads 50% to 25%.

Levin draws support from 23% of Conservative voters, 74% of Moderate voters, and 92% of Liberal voters. Hoogendyk’s base consists of 65% of Conservatives, 16% of Moderates and 6% of Liberals.

The incumbent leads 51% to 39% among men in Michigan and 56% to 29% among women.

Levin is viewed favorably by 61%, up from 58% last month, and unfavorably by 34%. Hoogendyk is still less known to voters at this point. His numbers are 38% favorable, 35% unfavorable, while 26% have no opinion.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Levin has a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Governor of Michigan Jennifer Granholm (D) earns good or excellent ratings from 30% of voters this month. That number has remained unchanged over the past month. Forty-two percent (42%) of voters in Michigan give the governor a poor rating, up from 39% last month.

In Michigan’s Presidential race, Barack Obama has a eight-point lead over John McCain.

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