Friday, July 18, 2008

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The United States Senate race in Maine remains steady this month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Pine Tree State finds Republican Senator Susan Collins leading Democrat Tom Allen 49% to 42%. When “leaners” are included, Collins leads 53% to 43%.

The latest results are identical those found last month. Support for the incumbent has slowly decreased from 54% in April to 52% in May. In June, her level of support slipped below 50%, which is generally considered vulnerable for any incumbent Senator.

Collins is backed by 82% of Republicans in May and 19% of Democrats. Allen’s base consists of 74% of Democrats and just 8% of Republicans. Collins has a strong lead among unaffiliated voters, 58% to 32%.

The incumbent leads 52% to 42% among men and 48% to 42% among women in Maine.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Collins a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

Collins is far from being the only Republican Senator who is potentially vulnerable in November. In fact, she is not even in the top tier of prospects for the Democrats to unseat. At least nine Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, Virginia, and Kentucky.

Favorability ratings for both candidates have also remained unchanged in July. Collins is viewed favorably by 65% and unfavorably by 32%. Allen’s numbers are 57% favorable and 37% unfavorable. Allen has been a member of the House since 1997.

Maine Governor John Baldacci (D) earns good or excellent ratings from just 30% of voters, while 32% think he is doing a poor job.

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