Wednesday, October 22, 2008

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems to be bucking the anti-GOP trend in much of the country. In the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky, McConnell leads his Democratic opponent Bruce Lunsford by seven points.

McConnell is ahead 50% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. In a survey at the beginning of the month, he had a nine-point lead.

Five percent (5%) of Kentucky voters say they are still undecided, while three percent (3%) intend to vote for some other unspecified candidate.

The Republican is seeking his fifth six-year term in the Senate. Early on, he had been viewed as one of several GOP senators who faced possible defeat. In May, following his victory in Kentucky’s Democratic primary, Lunsford was ahead by five points, but McConnell has been on top ever since.

The latest numbers from the presidential race in Kentucky will be released at 5 pm Eastern today.

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McConnell has the support of 85% of Kentucky Republicans and 23% of Democrats. Lunsford is supported by 69% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans.

Unaffiliated voters prefer the Democrat, who served as Kentucky’s Commerce secretary from 1980-1983 and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2003 and 2007, by five points.

Men give McConnell the edge by four points, while women support the incumbent by a 10-point margin.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of African-American voters support the Democrat, while 53% of white voters prefer the Republican.

McConnell is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Forty-six percent (46%) have a favorable view of Lunsford, and 47% regard him unfavorably. This marks a slight improvement for the challenger and an equally modest falling-off for the incumbent.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McConnell a % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

McConnell’s numbers are a rare bit of good news for Republicans these days. Republican Senate seats are at risk in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Democrats are hoping, with national polls trending in Obama’s direction, that they can achieve a 60-Democrat Senate on Election Day.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) percent of Kentucky voters say the state’s Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, is doing a good or excellent job. Only 14% rate his job performance as poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.