Friday, September 12, 2008

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Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota.

Among Democrats, Obama now attracts 83% of the vote, down six points from last month. However, the big change comes among unaffiliated voters who now favor McCain by a 48% to 43% margin. In August, before the two parties held their conventions, Obama led by twelve among voters not affiliated with either major political party (see demographic crosstabs).

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains close in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

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McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of Washington voters, up eight points from 52% in the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 58%, which is essentially unchanged.

As for the running mates, Biden is viewed favorably by 56%, Palin by 51%. However, feelings are much stronger about Palin—39% voice a Very Favorable opinion of her while 31% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Biden, the comparable numbers are 26% Very Favorable and 22% Very Unfavorable.

Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 66%, Obama by 55%, Palin by 53%, and Biden by 49%.

Fifty-one percent (51%) say that Palin was the right choice for McCain to make while 40% say that Biden was the right choice for Obama.

By a 53% to 36% margin, unaffiliated voters say McCain made the right choice. Thirty-five percent (35%) of unaffiliateds say that Obama made the right choice while 33% disagree.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Obama voters say they’re voting enthusiastically for their candidate while 19% are voting primarily against McCain.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of McCain voters are voting enthusiastically for him while 27% are voting primarily against Obama.

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Washington has cast its eleven Electoral College votes for Democratic candidates in each of the last five elections. In 2004, John Kerry took the state by a 53% to 46% margin.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Washington in November. At the time this poll was released, Washington was rated “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Rasmussen Reports has released polls on the presidential race this week for Alaska, Michigan, Montana, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Idaho, New Mexico and North Dakota. Additional state poll results will be released at RasmussenReports.com each Monday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern and Tuesday-Friday at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs for all state polls and get the first look at all Rasmussen Reports polling data. Learn More.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 32% of Washington voters, while 54% say he is doing a poor job. Nationally, the President’s approval ratings are barely above all-time lows.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.