Wednesday, August 13, 2008

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It’s hard to imagine a closer political race than the battle for Virginia’s Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 46% to 45%. When “leaners” are factored in, it’s McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point edge, 48% to 47%.

The difference between those two results can be found primarily among unaffiliated voters. Without leaners, McCain has a twelve point advantage among those not affiliated with either major party. When leaners are included, McCain’s advantage grows to seventeen points, 54% to 37%.

With or without leaners, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans while 87% of Democrats in Virginia say they’ll vote for Obama.

These results are essentially unchanged from a month ago. This is the third straight month to find the candidates just a single point apart and that may be one reason former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who is well ahead in his race for the Senate, has been tapped to give the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention later this month.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it’s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor’s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.

McCain does have one significant edge over Obama in that he is viewed far more favorably than his Democratic opponent. McCain earns favorable reviews from 61% of Virginia voters, Obama from just 51%.

Perhaps more ominous for Obama is the fact that 47% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 31% with a Very Unfavorable view.

For McCain, just 36% have an unfavorable opinion including 16% with a Very Unfavorable assessment.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a % chance of carrying the state again this fall. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004. But at the time this poll was released, Virginia was ranked as a “Toss Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) say that Congress should have stayed in session to finish an energy plan. Nationally, 61% want Members of Congress to return and vote on offshore oil drilling immediately.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Virginia voters favor offshore oil drilling, similar to the national average. Sixty-three percent (63%) say it’s more important to find new sources of energy while just 29% place a higher priority on reducing the amount of energy we consume. Those figures too are similar to the nation at large. Overall, voters see major differences between Obama and McCain on this issue.

Former Governor Mark Warner, the Democratic nominee for the Senate, maintains a sizable lead over his Republican opponent, Jim Gilmore. The Virginia Senate seat now held by Republican John Warner is the best chance at a pick-up Democrats have nationwide and also will help Obama in the state with the popular ex-governor free to campaign for his party’s candidate.

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The president’s ratings are little changed from last month, with 36% saying he is doing a good or an excellent job and 46% viewing his performance as poor.

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