Friday, July 18, 2008

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The presidential race in Virginia is now dead even, with Barack Obama and John McCain each drawing 44% of the vote, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

If “leaners” are factored in, McCain leads by a statistically insignificant one percentage point 48% to 47%.

Despite the close race, one potentially worrisome fact for the Democratic candidate is that nearly one out of two Virginia voters (47%) now view him unfavorably. That’s up from 44% in May and June. The number who see him in a Very Unfavorable light stands at 31%.

McCain’s unfavorables, by contrast, have held steady at 36% for the past two months and only 13% have a Very Unfavorable view of him.

Just last month Obama edged ahead of McCain in Virginia for the first time 45% to 44%. Although that lead was statistically insignificant, the narrowness of the contest in a state that has gone Republican in every presidential contest since 1968 has buoyed Democratic hopes of adding it to their column this November.

In the survey taken Wednesday night, the number of Virginia voters who favor a third-party candidate remains unchanged from last month at 5%. Six percent (6%) remain undecided, down one point from a month ago.

In five of the last six polls, Obama and McCain have been within five points of each other. Only in March with the Jeremiah Wright controversy raging did the Republican candidate jump ahead significantly –- by 11 points.

Similarly indicative of the volatility of the race are the findings for unaffiliated voters. The Republican now leads his Democratic opponent 46% to 36% among unaffiliateds: They were essentially even in June, but McCain had led by 19% in this group in May. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans and 84% of Democrats now say they will vote for their party’s candidate.

The racial divide remains startling, with 90% of blacks saying they will vote for Obama, the first African-American likely to be his party’s nominee for the White House. Thirty-six percent (36%) of white Virginia voters favor Obama, while 52% support McCain.

Obama experienced a modest bounce in the polls last month after Hillary Clinton quit the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, but the race began tightening up this past weekend. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.

McCain’s favorability rating has gone up 5% in the past month: 64% of Virginia voters now say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican candidate, including 26% who rate their view of him as Very Favorable.

Fifty-two percent (52%) view Obama favorably, again nearly identical to last month’s findings, including 35% who say their opinion of him is Very Favorable.

McCain also continues to make inroads in the conservative vote, despite concerns on the Right about his positions on immigration and other issues. Now 78% of self-designated conservatives, up from 70% in June, support McCain. Eighty-five percent (85%) of liberals support Obama, a five-percent increase from last month. Obama has gained 5% at McCain’s expense among moderate voters over the past month, leading now 61% to 26%.

Former Governor Mark Warner, the Democratic nominee for the Senate, maintains a sizable lead over his Republican opponent, Jim Gilmore. The Virginia Senate seat now held by Republican John Warner is the best chance at a pick-up Democrats have nationwide and also will help Obama in the state with the popular ex-governor free to campaign for his party’s candidate.

Virginia has cast its 13 Electoral College votes for the Republicans in the last 10 consecutive presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a % chance of carrying the state again this fall. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004. But at the time this poll was released, Virginia was ranked as a “Toss Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Economic issues continue to rank as the number one concern for a plurality of voters (42%) here, with 30% citing national security as their primary concern. Both figures are up slightly from last month.
Sixty percent (60%) of voters in Virginia support lifting the ban on offshore oil drilling, and slightly over half (52%) think this will cause the price of oil and gas to fall. The same number (52%) support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuse (ANWR) in Alaska, a position national Democrats have opposed for years.

Nearly half (48%) say reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment, but 40% take the opposite view.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) oppose lowering speed limits to a mandatory 55 mph, and 65% think it would have no impact on gas prices anyway.

Forty-eight percent (48%) agree with McCain that free trade is good for America, but 25% rate it as a bad thing.

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The president’s ratings are largely unchanged from last month, with 35% saying he is doing a good or an excellent job and 48% viewing his performance as poor.

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