Monday, May 12, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Virginia finds John McCain leading Barack Obama by just three percentage points, 47% to 44%. That’s a significant improvement for Obama after trailing the presumptive Republican nominee by eleven points a month ago.

The current survey was conducted just two days after Obama’s strong performance in the North Carolina and Indiana Primaries. Following those primaries, Rasmussen Reports stated that the Democratic race is over and that Obama will be the nominee of his Party. Nationally, McCain and Obama are quite competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Virginia, McCain leads by fifteen percentage points among men but trails by seven among women. A generation gap is found both nationally and in Virginia. In the state, Obama leads among voters under 40 but trails among their elders. McCain is supported by 81% of Republicans and Obama by 75% of Democrats. McCain has a nineteen point advantage among the state’s unaffiliated voters.

McCain leads by seventeen percentage points among Investors but most non-Investors support Obama. McCain also leads among those who attend Church or other religious services at least a couple of times a month. Obama leads among those who attend less frequently or not at all.

McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of Virginia voters, Obama by 51%.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 49% to 43% in Virginia.

In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, she trails McCain by six in Virginia, 47% to 41%.

Democrats are heavily favored to win the Virginia Senate race.

Virginia has cast its Thirteen Electoral College votes for the Republicans in ten consecutive Presidential Elections dating back to 1968. Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a % chance of continuing that streak. George W. Bush carried the state by eight percentage points in each of the last two elections. At the time this poll was released, Virginia was ranked as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

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