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Race Still A Toss-Up in Virginia, Tied at 48%

The race for the White House in Virginia is a tie this week. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 48% support in the Old Dominion.

One week ago, McCain had a modest 49% to 47% lead over Obama. Neither candidate has led the race by more than two percentage points since June, making the historically Republican state one of the biggest toss-ups in this year’s election.

While McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate has excited conservatives and his party nationally, it hasn't moved the numbers here.

Favorability ratings for both presidential nominees are virtually identical. McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s ratings are 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable.

(Want a free daily e-mail update on our latest results? Sign up now. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Get our daily update and we’ll let you know what voters really think.)

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel will jointly release a series battleground state polls every Monday night at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. See overview of all polling released this week.

Rasmussen Reports will release other state polling on the Presidential race weeknights at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, follows the race on a national basis and is updated every morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

The latest poll in Virginia finds McCain ahead 46% to 43% among unaffiliated voters. Last week, he was up 50% to 39% among this demographic. Among men, McCain leads 53% to 44%, while Obama leads 52% to 43% among women.

The Republican has a 59% to 38% edge among white voters in Virginia, while Obama has a 78% to 18% lead among non-whites.

The candidates are even when it comes to voter trust. Each candidate is trusted more than the other by 46% of likely voters.

This week, 35% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House, while 29% say that about McCain. However, 40% of voters say they would be not be comfortable at all with Obama as president, compared to just 36% who say the same about McCain.

When it comes to their running mates, 26% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable if Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph Biden was forced to step in as president, while 22% say that of Palin. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Biden in charge, and 44% say the same of Palin. A separate national survey released earlier today found that voters say McCain and Biden are the most prepared to be president.

If faced with the toughest decisions of their lives, 48% of voters say they would turn to McCain for advice, while 46% would choose Obama.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a % chance of carrying the state again this fall. Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Governor Tim Kaine earns good or excellent ratings from 47% of voters, while 20% say he is doing a poor job.

Though George W. Bush carried the state in both the 2000 and 2004 elections, just 37% of voters in Virginia say he is doing a good or excellent job, while 49% say he is doing a poor job.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Virginia
Leans Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

47%

46%

45%

Obama (D)

51%

52%

49%

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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Virginia Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

47%

51%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/16/2008

44%

54%

10/12/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

48%

50%

09/28/2008

47%

50%

09/25/2008

45%

50%

09/21/2008

50%

48%

09/14/2008

48%

48%

09/07/2008

49%

47%

08/12/2008

45%

46%

07/16/2008

44%

44%

06/12/2008

44%

45%

05/08/2008

47%

44%

03/27/2008

52%

41%

02/19/2008

49%

44%

01/03/2008

45%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Virginia

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

46%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

10%

Very Unfavorable

19%

33%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

260

Toss-Ups & Leaners

118


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.