Friday, September 26, 2008

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Matching a trend seen in national polling, Barack Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain in Virginia over the past week as the Wall Street financial crunch has put economic concerns front and center.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Obama with 50% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. Last Sunday, McCain was up two points. The week before, the candidates were tied.

The current poll marks the first time that either candidate has had more than a two-point advantage in Virginia since May. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans.

Just nine percent (9%) of Virginia voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 57% say it is in poor shape. Just five percent (5%) say the economy is getting better; 83% say it is getting worse.

Investors, who typically offer a more positive view of economic conditions, are just as pessimistic as non-investors. Obama leads by four points among Investors, which is a stunning number given that investors generally lean more heavily in the GOP direction than non-investors.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Virginia voters name the economy as the top issue of Election 2008.
Overall, 50% trust Obama more when it comes to the economy while 44% have more confidence in McCain. The survey was conducted on Thursday night as a White House meeting attempted to rescue the financial bailout bill being promoted by the Bush Administration. Public opposition to the measure has grown and 63% are now worried the federal government will try to do too much to resolve the financial crunch. Just 25% are concerned that the government won’t do enough.

Nationally, on the morning of the first debate, Obama has opened a five-percentage point lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

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McCain’s support from Republicans has slipped from 90% last week to 86% in the current survey. His 13-point advantage among unaffiliated voters in the earlier survey has vanished, with the two candidates essentially even among those voters now. Obama draws support from 92% of Democrats (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of Virginia voters, up six points. McCain is viewed favorably by 54%, a four-point decline.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a % chance of carrying the state again this fall.

At the time this poll was released, Virginia was ranked as a “Toss Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.