Monday, September 29, 2008

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The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Virginia finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 50% to 47%.

This is the second consecutive poll in which Obama has held the advantage in the toss-up state—he had a five percentage points advantage in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted just four days ago. A week ago, McCain held a two-point edge in the previous Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll. Other than Obama’s five point edge last week, neither candidate led by more than three points since March.

George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans.

Obama has a solid 52% to 41% lead among unaffiliated voters in Virginia. While Obama leads 56% to 40% among women in Virginia, McCain leads 55% to 42% among men (see full demographic crosstabs).

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 44% in Virginia.

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While 38% of Virginia voters say they would be extremely comfortable with an Obama presidency, just 28% say that of a McCain presidency. However, 40% say they would not be comfortable at all with Obama in the White House, while 37% say that about McCain.

While 30% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Joe Biden as the Vice President, 26% say that of Sarah Palin. A third of voters (33%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Biden as VP, while nearly half (45%) say that of Palin.

Voters in Virginia trust McCain slightly more than Obama overall, but they trust Obama more on the economy and jobs by a 50% to 45% margin. Not surprisingly, the economy is the top electoral issue for the plurality of Virginia voters. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama is trusted more on the economy by a 52% to 38% margin.

McCain still has the edge on national security in Virginia, leading Obama 52% to 44% on that issue. Nationally, separate Rasmussen polling found that Obama received a post-debate boost from voters in terms of trust on all issues, including the War in Iraq.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a % chance of carrying the state again this fall. At the time this poll was released, Virginia was ranked as a “Toss Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

In Virginia, 80% of voters say they are certain of their voting choice, while 20% say they might change their minds before Election Day.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 34% of Virginia voters, while 51% rate his job performance as poor.

Governor Tim Kaine earns good or excellent reviews from 42% of voters, while 24% say he is doing a poor job.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel jointly release a series of battleground state polls every Monday at 6 p.m. Eastern. See overview of all polling released this week with results from Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Additional state polls will be released each day at 5 p.m. Eastern. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential tracking Poll is released each morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.