Monday, October 20, 2008

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Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama now leading 54% to 44%. The Democrat leads 51% to 48% among men and 57% to 42% among women (see full demographic crosstabs).

Just one week ago, Obama held a three percentage point lead but Obama has been dramatically outspending McCain on television advertising in this critical state. The Democrat has now been ahead of McCain in five straight Virginia polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports.

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable.

George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans. No Democrat has won the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But, with release of this poll, Virginia moves from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of carrying Virginia this fall.

Though both candidates have been criticized for negative campaigning this year, most Virginia voters (52%) think the overall tone of this election is about the same as past elections. Just 12% believe this election is more positive, while 35% say it is more negative. Only 50% believe it is possible to win an election without criticizing the opponent, while 40% disagree.

While the plurality of voters (43%) believes Obama’s campaign has been generally positive, over half (54%) say McCain’s has been generally negative.

On the top electoral issue of the economy, 46% of voters in Virginia disagrees with the economic rescue plan passed by Congress two weeks ago. Just 29% agree with the plan and only 38% believe it will help the economy. Twenty-two percent (22%) believe the government action will hurt the economy while another 27% say the $700 billion taxpayer investment will have no impact.

Forty-six percent (46%) says lowering taxes would be the best policy to spur economic growth, but half (51%) also say that raising taxes on those who make over $250,000 a year would help the economy.

Voters in Virginia are less supportive of raising the capital gains tax, with 52% who think this would hurt the economy overall.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 32% of Virginia voters, while 67% give his job performance a poor rating.

New polling on the presidential race is also being released today from Colorado , North Carolina, Florida and Missouri. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.