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The Only Bad Numbers for Clinton Are on the Calendar
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Now, even the Republicans are all talking about Hillary Clinton as if she’s got the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination all wrapped up.

There’s three reasons that the GOP hopefuls are talking so much about the Senator from New York. First, they’d rather talk about her than the current Republican President. Second, the country is fairly evenly divided on Senator Clinton and a 50-50 split is better than the GOP can do on just about any issue in the debate today. Finally, of course, it’s because Clinton’s numbers look so good.

In fact, it’s hard to find a poll of the Democratic race where Clinton is anywhere but on top. Rasmussen Reports shows her leading nationally, in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

Not only that, as her lead has grown, she is also seen as the most electable Democrat—50% of Democratic voters say Clinton is Very Likely to win it all if she is nominated. Another 31% say she is Somewhat Likely to win. No other candidate, in either party, comes close to those numbers.

A week ago, surveys conducted identified three notable swings in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Only one set of numbers works against Clinton at this time, and those involve days on the calendar. If the election were held today on a state or national basis, the former First Lady would be nominated by her party and elected President. But, the ultimate Election Day is still more than a year away. Even the Super Spectacular Tuesday Primary Event on February 5 is more than 100 days away.

It’s not clear what could happen during those 100+ days to change the dynamics of the Democratic race, but something could happen. And that is the biggest threat to the Clinton campaign at this time.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday.

For the seven days ending October 21, 2007, Hillary Clinton earns 46% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 24% followed by John Edwards at 11%. Bill Richardson attracts 3% while Dennis Kucinich at 3% and Joe Biden at 2%. Chris Dodd is at 1% and Mike Gravel a bit below that level while 9% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.