Two narratives of the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination are competing for dominance this week. In one narrative, New York Senator Hillary Clinton has lost support due to her debate gaffe and follow-up efforts. The other is that Clinton is the dominant frontrunner with significant leads just about everywhere. Both have the virtue of being true.

There is no doubt that Clinton has lost a little ground over the past couple of weeks. The full week results for the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll show the former First Lady’s support down four percentage points over the past two weeks. Additionally, polling in New Hampshire showed her lead declining six percentage points over roughly the same two week period. While the declines are relatively modest, they are the first declines noted after several months of growing support for the Clinton candidacy (see summary of weekly poll results).

At the same time, there is no doubt that Clinton is a dominant frontrunner. Even after a tough couple of weeks, she attracts twice as much support as her nearest competitor and holds a double digit lead in New Hampshire. It’s hard to imagine a campaign anywhere that wouldn’t enjoy Clinton’s numbers at this time. So, while opposing campaigns can grasp some hope from the fact that it is possible for Clinton’s campaign to stumble, taking the nomination away from her will require much more.

The place where these competing narratives will ultimately collide is the Iowa caucus on January 3. The race for the nomination has always been closer in Iowa than anywhere else and the nature of the caucus means that a well-organized campaign can outperform expectations. This year, the unusually early and holiday season timing of the caucus adds further uncertainty to the outcome.

But, while the outcome is unclear at this time, the stakes are very clear. Iowa is a must-win state for both Obama and Edwards. If they can’t stop Clinton there, they won’t stop her anywhere.

Rasmussen Reports will be polling in Iowa this week for the first time since the October 30 debate.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday.

For the seven days ending November 11, 2007, Hillary Clinton earns 42% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 20% followed by John Edwards at 16%. Bill Richardson attracts 4%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Joe Biden 2% and Chris Dodd 1%. Mike Gravel rounds down to 0% support while 11% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.