The national polls in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination remain remarkably stable. New York Senator Hillary Clinton remains the frontrunner with support in the 40 percent range and a very solid lead. Illinois Senator Barack Obama remains in second place, consistently earning support in the mid-20 percent range. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is the only other candidate in double digits, routinely attracting support in the mid-teens.

About the only thing that’s changed over the last six months has been a modest but significant increase in support for the frontrunner. Clinton also has the edge in many primary states including New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina.

The stability and clarity of the Democratic race stands in stark contrast to the fluid situation facing Republicans.

One reason that the Democratic race has remained so stable is that it’s been difficult for Obama and Edwards to articulate a convincing reason to dethrone Clinton as the frontrunner. Democratic voters see only modest ideological differences between the three leading candidates. Also, while Democrats are fairly confident that all three would have a chance to win the general election, they have the most confidence in Clinton.

Within the political party, Clinton is also the most well-liked of the party’s potential nominees and routinely earns favorable ratings from eight-out-of-ten Democratic voters. Obama and Edwards do well in these ratings, but not as well as Clinton.

There is one other factor that acts as a firewall for Clinton—women. Among female voters, the former First Lady holds a staggering lead over both Obama and Edwards in virtually all polling. In many polls, Clinton attracts more support from women than all seven male candidates combined.

Taking all this into account, a commentary by Douglas Schoen observes Clinton has clearly strengthened her position as frontrunner during the first eight months of 2007.

Still, several months will go by before the first actual votes will be cast and Clinton’s nomination is not inevitable. She has run a solid and disciplined campaign but occasionally slipped (her defense of lobbyists that didn’t resonate with anyone).

What will it take for Edwards or Obama to defeat Clinton and win the nomination? Probably, it will require a mistake by Clinton. But, almost certainly it would involve making Iowa a four-letter word in the Clinton household. If Edwards or Obama can defeat Clinton in the Iowa caucus, they will have a platform upon which to press a further campaign. Winning in Iowa will not be enough for either of those candidates, but it is an essential first step.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday.

A separate commentary by Douglas Schoen notes that while Democrats have the advantage heading into Election 2008, head-to-head match-ups suggest the election is far from a sure thing.

In addition to the daily tracking poll, Rasmussen Reports provides weekly results to provide a longer-term overview of the race. These updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys. Results are reported based upon interviews conducted on the seven days up to and including the night before posting.

For the seven days ending September 9, 2007, Hillary Clinton earns 43% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 23% followed by John Edwards at 14%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson tops the second-tier candidates at 4% followed by Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich (3%) and Delaware Senator Joe Biden (3%). Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd and former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel each register less than 1% support. Eleven percent (11%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided. (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.