The winner of the Texas Presidential Primary will be determined by turnout and late deciders.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, conducted Sunday, finds Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 48% Clinton 47%. Five percent (5%) are undecided and 6% say they could still change their mind.

These results show the race has gotten a bit closer in the past few days. Last week, Obama enjoyed a four-point lead and the Illinois Senator had been gaining ground steadily for two weeks. Now, it appears that Clinton has at least temporarily halted Obama’s momentum. It remains to be seen whether she car reverse it.

A similar pattern was found in Ohio. However, in the Buckeye State, Clinton never lost the lead and she now has a six-point advantage.

In Texas, most of Clinton’s rebound can be attributed to regaining solid support from Latino voters. The previous two polls showed Clinton ahead in this critical constituency, but with declining margins.

Clinton leads among voters over 40 and does especially well among those over 65. She also would like to see a big turnout from white women and Latino voters.

Obama would like to see a larger turnout from younger voters and African-Americans.

In Texas, Clinton is viewed favorably by 71% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 73%. For both candidates, those numbers reflect a modest decline over the past several days.

Clinton has a 51% to 45% edge among voters who say the economy is the most important voting issue. She also enjoys a sixteen-point lead among those who say Health Care is the primary interest. Obama leads among voters with concerns on other issues including a 59% to 38% lead among those who say the War in Iraq is the highest priority to consider.

Rasmussen Markets data just prior to release of this poll showed Barack Obama was heavily favored to win in Texas (current prices: Obama % Clinton %). Overall, Obama is given an % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

The current survey sample includes 53% women and 47% men. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the respondents are white, 20% African-American, and 23% Hispanic. Thirteen percent (13%) are under 30, 41% are 30-49, and 46% are over 50.

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