When Election 2008 began, long before the first votes were cast, Senator Hillary Clinton led in the national polls but trailed Barack Obama in the key state of Iowa. Many remarked upon the difference between those national and state numbers. At Rasmussen Reports, we noted that if Clinton won Iowa, she could wrap up the nomination. On the other hand, if Obama won Iowa, he would have the chance to make his case but there would be no clear frontrunner.

Today, the situation is reversed. Obama leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and can wrap up the nomination with victories in the key states of Ohio and Texas. Clinton needs to win those states to keep her campaign alive. Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released polling data showing Clinton with a double-digit lead in Ohio and the latest Rasmussen Reports polling in Texas also shows the former First Lady on top in the Lone Star State. Clinton attracts 54% of the vote in Texas while Obama earns 38% with nearly three weeks to go until Election Day.

If Clinton is able to win in both Texas and Ohio, the race for delegates will be just about even and there will be new talking points for the Superdelegates to consider before reaching a decision.

However, just 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in Texas say they have made up their mind and are certain about their vote. Ten percent (10%) remain undecided, 5% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and 16% say they might change their mind.

Overall, 78% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 67% say the same about Obama. Among voters who are currently undecided, 59% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 48% offer a positive assessment of Obama.

Eighty-two percent (82%) believe Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Seventy-one percent (71%) believe Obama would have a chance to win in November. Among those who are undecided, 53% believe Clinton would have a chance to defeat the Republicans and 50% say the same about Obama.

Clinton currently leads among both White and Latino voters. Obama leads among African-American voters.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of all Democratic Primary voters view the economy as the top voting issue of Election 2008. Nineteen percent (19%) say it’s the War in Iraq while 17% view Health Care as the top priority. In many states, Obama has the advantage over Clinton among voters focused on the War in Iraq. That is not the case in Texas. In fact, regardless of which issue voters consider most important, Clinton has the advantage at the moment.

Recent general election polling shows Obama leading McCain in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada. Clinton does not do as well against McCain in these states. In Missouri, McCain is essentially even with both Clinton and Obama. Nationally, Obama leads McCain and McCain leads Clinton.

Immediately prior to the release of this polling data, Rasmussen Markets results showed the Texas Primary to be a toss-up with Obama and Clinton given an equal chance of winning (current prices: Clinton % Obama %). In terms of winning the nomination, the Markets currently give Obama a % chance while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.