If former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is the Republican nominee in 2008, the Volunteer State is likely to cast its Electoral College votes for the home town boy. A Rasmussen Reports statewide survey finds that Thompson leads Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton by fifteen percentage points (54% to 39%). He leads John Edwards by twenty-one points (56% to 35%) and Barack Obama by thirty points (60% to 30%).

However, if the Republican nominee is Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney, Tennessee’s eleven Electoral votes could conceivably end up in the Democratic column. Clinton has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Giuliani (46% to 44%) and a six-point lead over Romney (46% to 40%). Clinton also has an edge over Republican hopefuls in three other southern states—Arkansas, Virginia, and Florida. If any Democrat is able to win Southern states in Election 2008, it will be a long night for the GOP.

But, Tennessee voters have high hopes for Thompson. Seventy-one percent (71%) say he’s at least Somewhat Likely to win the Republican nomination and 68% say the same about his chances for winning the White House. Those figures include 34% who say he’s Very Likely to win the nomination and 24% who say he’s Very Likely to move into the White House on January 20, 2009.

Just 20% of Tennessee voters say that Thompson waited too long to enter the Presidential race. Fifty-three percent (53%) say the other candidates started campaigning too soon.

Forty-nine percent (49%) say that Fred Thompson is the Republican candidate most like Ronald Reagan. That view is held by 61% of the state’s Republicans. Fifteen percent (15%) of all voters say that none of the candidates are like Reagan. Eleven percent (11%) name Giuliani, 10% say McCain, and 7% Romney.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Tennessee voters say Reagan did a good or an excellent job as President. When Reagan passed away, 67% of voters nationwide rated his Presidential performance as good or excellent.

Thompson’s home state situation is significantly different from Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts. The Bay State is among the most Democratic leaning of all 50-states and its Electoral Votes will go to the Democratic nominee again in 2008. Romney, a recent governor of the state, didn’t perform any better against the Democrats than Giuliani or Thompson.

Nationally, Thompson and Giuliani lead all Republican hopefuls in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. But, the race remains fluid. McCain and Romney have struggled to gain traction and are stuck between the frontrunners and the also-rans.

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