Monday, July 14, 2008

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In South Dakota, John McCain leads Barack Obama by just four percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds McCain with 44% of the vote and Obama with 40%. When “leaners” are included, it’s still a four-point race--McCain 47% Obama 43%.

South Dakota joins several states to the north and west of Obama’s home in Illinois where the Democrat’s presumptive nominee is doing very well. Obama has a slight lead in Montana and is even in North Dakota, both traditionally Republican states at the Presidential level. Obama has big leads in Minnesota and Wisconsin, states that lean Democratic but have been very competitive in recent years. Nationally, the race remains close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

South Dakota is one state where McCain is struggling among Republican voters. He earns the vote from just 71% of the GOP faithful while Obama is supported by 21%. Another 6% say they would opt for a third-party option.

McCain leads by fourteen among men but trails by five among women. As in other states, McCain does best among regular churchgoers while Obama is strong among those who rarely or never attend services.

McCain is viewed favorably by 62% of South Dakota voters, Obama by 54%.

Twenty-six percent (26%) believe McCain is too old to be President while 45% say Obama is too inexperienced.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a % chance of winning South Dakota’s three Electoral College votes this November. With release of this poll, South Dakota shifts from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters favor offshore oil drilling and 60% believe it’s likely that such an action will bring down the price of gas and oil. Those figures are not too far from the national average.

Fifty-one percent (51%) say that it’s more important to get troops home from Iraq than it is to win the war. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree and say victory is more important. Those figures are similar to the national average. Forty percent (40%) of voters now believe it is possible for the U.S. to win in Iraq, up eight points from a year ago.

Sixty percent (60%) of South Dakota voters pulled the lever for George W. Bush four years ago but just over half that number—33%--now say he is doing a good or an excellent job.

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Rasmussen Reports had polled in South Dakota just once before this season. In March, McCain led Obama by ten.

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