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South Carolina: Obama 43% Clinton 28% Edwards 17%
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
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Heading into Saturday’s Democratic Presidential Primary in South Carolina, Barack Obama holds a large and growing double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in South Carolina shows Obama earning 43% of the vote, Clinton attracting 28%, and John Edwards at 17%. Obama led by thirteen points in the previous Rasmussen Reports poll and has led by at least twelve points in four of the last five polls conducted in the race. (see crosstabs) John Edwards has remained between 14% and 17% in all South Carolina polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports in January. However, as Obama pulls away, Edwards is now closer to Clinton than Clinton is to Obama. Among those who say they are certain to vote Saturday, it’s Obama 45%, Clinton 28%, and Edwards 17%. Among those who say they are certain they will not change their mind before Saturday, it’s Obama 46%, Clinton 32%, and Edwards 15%. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say they are “certain” they will not change their mind before voting. Just 3% say there is a good chance they will change their mind. Obama continues to enjoy dominant support among African-American voters who make up roughly half of Democratic Primary Voters in South Carolina. Obama now leads Clinton 68% to 16% among African-Americans in the Palmetto State. Edwards earns just 6% of the African-American vote. Clinton leads Obama 40% to 21% among white voters with Edwards earning 27% of the white vote. This is similar to the national dynamics as support for Clinton and Obama breaks down along gender and racial lines. Obama’s 52-point advantage among African-Americans is up from 44-points in the previous survey and nearly double his 23-point edge in mid-January. Nationally, Clinton leads Obama in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Barack Obama is currently favored to win in South Carolina. Current prices imply that Obama has a % chance of winning while Clinton has a % chance. Despite that, Clinton is the favorite for the nomination. The former First Lady is given a % chance of winning the Democratic nomination while the markets show Obama with a % chance. Numbers in this paragraph reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 624 Likely Democratic Primary Voters
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