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South Carolina: McCain 24% Huckabee 24%
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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary shows that John McCain and Mike Huckabee are tied at 24%. In a race that has already seen four different candidates with the lead, much could still change in the coming days--7% of voters have yet to make up their mind, 10% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and another 24% might change their mind.

Mitt Romney attracts 18% support and Fred Thompson 16%. Those figures are little changed from the previous survey. Both Romney and Thompson have led in South Carolina at some point over the past several months. The latest survey was conducted the night after Mitt Romney’s victory in Michigan. Ron Paul attracts 5% support and Rudy Giuliani 3%. Giuliani is betting his entire campaign on a strong showing in Florida, where he is now tied for the lead with three others.

In South Carolina, however, McCain and Huckabee have been battling for the top spot for several weeks. Huckabee was ahead following his victory in Iowa. McCain took a narrow lead after his victory in New Hampshire. Then, just before the Michigan Primary, McCain opened a nine-point lead, 28% to 19%. McCain’s lead grew as Fred Thompson chipped away at Huckabee’s support.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of South Carolina Republican Primary voters say that the economy is their top voting issue. Twenty-three percent (23%) name immigration. Exit polling showed that these issues hurt McCain in Michigan but they may not be the best issues for Huckabee, either. Among those who see the economy as the most important issue, McCain currently leads Huckabee by eight points. Thompson and Romney currently earn the most support from those who name immigration as the top issue.

Seventeen percent (17%) of the state’s Likely Republican Primary Voters named national security as the top issue while 14% said the War in Iraq. McCain and Thompson are the top choices for those who name national security as their number one issue. McCain and Huckabee are essentially even among those who name the War in Iraq as their top priority.

McCain, Huckabee, and Romney lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. McCain also has a slight edge over Giuliani in the Super Tuesday Primary in New Jersey.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Huckabee’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him while 63% of McCain voters say they won’t change their mind. Sixty-three percent (63%) Thompson supporters are that “certain” along with 55% of Romney backers. Seventeen percent (17%) of Romney voters say there’s a good chance they might change their mind. That’s a far higher total than for other leading candidates, a fact that might benefit McCain.

McCain is also seen as the most electable Republican. Seventy-five percent (75%) say that he would be at least somewhat likely to win in November if nominated. Sixty-five percent (65%) say the same about Romney and 61% have similar confidence in a Huckabee candidacy.

Fifty-two percent (52%) say Thompson would have a chance in November, 50% say the same about Giuliani, and 17% believe Ron Paul could win it all if nominated.

In South Carolina’s Democratic race, Barack Obama’s lead is growing and so is the racial divide.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that John McCain is currently a slight favorite to win the Republican nomination. Current market data suggests that the Arizona Senator has a % chance of winning the nomination. Giuliani has a % chance, Mike Huckabee %, Mitt Romney %, and Fred Thompson %. Numbers in this paragraph reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, RasmussenMarkets.com harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events.

We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 895 Likely GOP Voters
January 16, 2007

Election 2008: South Carolina GOP Primary

John McCain

24%

Mike Huckabee

24%

Mitt Romney

18%

Fred Thompson

16%

Ron Paul

5%

Rudy Giuliani

3%

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