Rasmussen Reports

« If it's in the news it's in our polls. «

« Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today. »

-Larry Sabato, University of Virginia

« Rasmussen, an organization with fast zeitgeist reflexes.... «

-The Politico

« If it's in the news it's in our polls. «

« The best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com «

-Michael Barone, The Washington Examiner`

« If you really want to know what people in America think, you can't find a better place to look than Rasmussen Reports «

-Susan Estrich

« If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y.Times, go with Rasmussen! »

-Mickey Kaus, Slate Magazine
Premium MembershipLoginSignup
Search
Sign up for free daily updates
Advertisement
Advertisement

Race for Democratic Presidential Nomination Set to Continue for a Long Time
Email a Friend Email to a Friend
Advertisement

Hillary Clinton won popular vote victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island on Tuesday night to re-shape the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. As recently as a week ago, it looked like the March 4 primaries might mark the end of Clinton’s Presidential dreams. Now, however, the race appears set to continue for at least another couple of months through the Primaries in Pennsylvania on April 22 and North Carolina on May 6. There is a growing likelihood that the campaign could stretch on in to the summer without a winner.

Clinton’s victories on Tuesday came from re-assembling the coalition that supported her early in the campaign, especially white women, older voters, and lower income Democrats. Exit polls confirmed the surge for Clinton that had been seen in polling just before election day. Those who made up their mind in the final days of the campaign strongly favored the former First Lady.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Clinton is currently favored to win Pennsylvania while Obama is favored in North Carolina (current prices show a % expectation for Clinton to win Pennsylvania and a % expectation for Obama to win North Carolina). The latest polling in Pennsylvania shows Clinton with a narrow lead.

It is now clear that the race will be determined by the Superdelegates. Neither Obama nor Clinton will be able to garner enough pledged delegates to wrap up the nomination. Many assume the Superdelegates will simply ratify the winner of the pledged delegate completion, but other scenarios are possible. This is especially true if Clinton does well enough in the remaining Primaries to end up with more popular votes that Obama. If that happens, there are no clear guidelines for the Democrats to follow.

While the results on Tuesday night keep Clinton in the race, Obama remains the favorite. As of 7:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning, Rasmussen Markets data give Obama a 72% chance to win the nomination. That is down from 87% on Monday morning. Current prices show Obama with a % chance to win. These numbers are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.