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Race for Democratic Nomination Nationally Is Now a Toss-Up
Monday, February 11, 2008
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Last week, Rasmussen Reports noted that something might have changed in the Democratic race following Obama’s huge victory in South Carolina and high profile endorsements from the Kennedy clan. Today, the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination has changed beyond recognition. On the day before Super Tuesday, for the first time all year, Rasmussen Marketsdata shows that Clinton and Obama have roughly equal chances of winning (current prices: Clinton %; Obama % ). Obama has taken a one-point lead over Clinton in California. He also holds a sizable lead in Georgia. Connecticut, Alabama and Arizona are close while Obama is gaining fast in Missouri. Clinton leads in New York, New Jersey, and Tennessee (see summary of Super Tuesday polls). Perhaps the most important fact of all is that the Democrats award delegates on a proportional representation basis. That means that it won’t matter quite so much who wins and loses a given state so long as it’s close. Since both candidates will win a few states and both will pick up large numbers of delegates, it is highly unlikely that either candidate will earn a decisive victory tomorrow. In fact, it may be more than a month before we know the Democratic nominee. That stands in sharp contrast to the Republican race where winner-take-all states create delegate math highly favorable for John McCain. Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day. For the seven days ending February 3, Hillary Clinton earns 46% of the vote and Barack Obama earned 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) were either undecided or supporting a candidate who is no longer in the race (review history of weekly results). The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,500 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release. Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIES42% Support Health Care Reform After Release of Pelosi's Version 49% See GOP Takeover of Congress Next Year As Possible What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Americans Favor Home Buyer Tax Credit Until They Hear How Much It Costs 30% Favor One Party Running the White House and Congress Voters Divided On Whether Passing Good Legislation More Important Than Killing Bad Bills 45% for Obama, 49% Against – If Election Were Held Right Now President Obama: One Year After Winning it All There Is No Honor; There's Only Killing By Debra J. Saunders Advertisement
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